Graph: More Downside Possible in US Wheat Exports

Jan 25, 2023

There may still be additional downside in what is an already much smaller 2022-23 US wheat export forecast.

According to USDA export sales data, US wheat export sales total commitments - outstanding sales along with accumulated exports- amounted to 15.1 million tonnes as of Jan. 5, down 7% from the same time last year and representing 71% of the full marketing year estimate of 775 million bu, or 21.1 million tonnes. (See graph below).

That is lower than the percentage of the wheat export estimate met by total commitments at the same point in nine of the last 10 years, “suggesting that U.S. wheat may need a slightly stronger pace of sales in the coming months to meet the current projection,” the USDA said in its January Wheat Outlook.

If accurate, projected 2022-23 US wheat exports would be the lowest in 51 years, weighed down by tight domestic supplies and a huge crop in Russia that is being offered up to world markets at deeply discounted prices.

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