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Harvest Nearly Done on State’s 2024 Wheat Crop

By Ms. Bonnie A. Coblentz

Wheat harvest was complete across most of the state by late June, wrapping up a crop that was quite small compared to recent years and in fairly average condition.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture estimated wheat harvest was 94% complete by June 23, well ahead of the 5-year average for harvest. Mississippi growers planted just 70,000 acres in 2023, and the crop has averaged 96,000 acres since 2021.

“Last year, we had an extremely dry fall,” said Erick Larson, Mississippi State University Extension Service grain crops agronomist. “Until nearly Thanksgiving time, fields were too dry to promote germination of wheat that was seeded. That drove growers to withhold planting many acres that they otherwise would have planted in wheat.”

Wheat is never a major crop in Mississippi, but it typically is grown on about 180,000 acres. This year’s wheat acreage was 40% down from that grown in 2023, and in keeping with a recent trend of very low acres.

Larson said growers must choose whether they want a summer crop or a winter crop, although some try to harvest in June and plant late soybeans, which is known as double cropping.

“Most of the summer crops are more profitable and have a more regular market available for them,” Larson said. “Wheat is a secondary crop, and some elevators may not be able to accommodate it or other secondary crops.”

Wheat is the primary winter grain crop option for Mississippi growers, so it continues to be produced in the state.

This year, once the crop received enough rain in the fall to germinate, there were few complications. The cold snap in January did no significant damage as the crop was dormant at that time.

“Wheat normally does better with dry conditions in April and May as it hits its stride and goes through heading stages and grain development,” Larson said. “The fact that we avoided a lot of soaking, flooding rains this spring helped the outlook of the acres we had.”

Disease issues were handled when necessary, and insect problems were minimal.

“The reduced acreage we’ve had over the past several years negated the chance of prevalent pests having a cumulative cycle effect,” Larson said. “If there’s a lot of wheat, then the pest populations often ramp up.

“The fact that wheat acreage is so scattered and inconsistent reduced problems and kept pests at not a particularly threatening level,” he said.

Wheat harvest begins in May each year, and Larson said most in the state was harvested between May 20 and June 15.

Will Maples, Extension agricultural economist, said wheat futures rallied to nearly $7 a bushel in May but shed all that gain in June to close at $5.61 per bushel on June 21.

“Much of the rally was fueled by concerns with the Russian wheat crop, but yields in Russia have risen higher than expected in recent weeks,” Maples said. “The U.S. wheat crop has also shown better than expected yields.”

He said wheat futures prices are higher than cash prices which were $5.44 per bushel June 24 in Greenville and $5.09 per bushel in Belzoni and Greenwood.

“Wheat prices are down significantly from the highs two years ago when the Ukraine/Russia War began and threw the markets into chaos,” Maples said.

Source : msstate.edu

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Agricultural Market Update: Grain Prices, Crop Conditions, and Weather Impacts

Welcome back to our channel where we provide comprehensive updates on the latest trends and changes in the agricultural sector. This week, we're looking at significant movements in grain prices, crop conditions, and the effects of weather patterns. Let's dive into the details:

Grain Price Decline Grain prices have fallen to their lowest levels since 2020, with December corn down 4.3% and November soybeans losing 3.1%. This decline is partly due to the beneficial moisture brought by Hurricane Beryl to the Midwest, which has improved crop conditions significantly. The USDA reported that corn and soybean crops are in their best condition in four years, contributing to the downward pressure on prices.

Record Short Positions and Market Sentiment Fund traders have increased their net short positions in the corn market to a record level, with a net short of 347,000 contracts of corn. This reflects a bearish sentiment in the market, further influencing grain price dynamics. Similar selling trends were observed in soybeans and SRW wheat, indicating broad market caution.

Weather Impact and Forecast Hurricane Beryl has brought significant rainfall across Arkansas, Missouri, western Tennessee, western Kentucky, and southern Illinois, with more expected over Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana in the coming days. Despite this, the market is currently more focused on the moisture benefits rather than potential heat risks forecasted in the 6-10 and 8-14 day periods.

US Crop Conditions Corn and soybean conditions have shown slight improvements last week, with corn rated 68% good to excellent and soybeans at 68%. These are among the best ratings for this time of year since 2020, suggesting robust crop health that could continue to influence grain prices.

Winter Wheat Harvest and Spring Wheat Conditions The US winter wheat harvest is progressing well, ahead of schedule with significant portions already harvested in Kansas and Texas. Spring wheat conditions are also favorable, with 75% rated good to excellent, although there have been some declines in states like Idaho, South Dakota, and Washington. Brazil's Corn Harvest and US Exports Brazil's second corn crop harvest is advancing rapidly due to favorable hot and dry conditions, with 63% of the crop already harvested. Meanwhile, US corn shipments saw a substantial increase last week, indicating strong export demand, which contrasts with the recent drop in domestic grain prices.

Ongoing Developments Lastly, the USDA reported a flash sale of corn, with significant quantities sold to unknown destinations, scheduled for delivery over the next two marketing years. This could signal ongoing international demand for US corn despite lower prices.

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