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High Corn Prices Thinning Ethanol Margins

By Mark Dorenkamp

High corn prices are thinning ethanol margins. Renewable Fuels Association CEO Geoff Cooper tells Brownfield biofuel producers are concerned about market dynamics. “Especially when you think about getting into July and August, and how far is this old crop going to stretch before we get new crop coming in. But I’ll tell you, so far the industry has been able to manage these higher corn prices pretty effectively.” He says many plants remain profitable because oil prices have also been rising, and demand for ethanol co-products like dried distillers grains is strong.

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Despite a Super Strong El Nino the early South American soybean planting pace is ahead of schedule.
The long-term forecast looks dry for the North but wet for the South including Argentina.
China bought 1.5 mmt of U.S. soybeans this week with rumors of 2 mmt and now at 68% of 25 mmt commitment.
The question mark remains the Chinese pledge towards the $17 billion in ag purchases.
NOPA weekly crush report was lower than expected. Another hot U.S. wholesale inflation print this week.
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Weak U.S. pork demand weighing on hogs
+ CFTC.