Higher Yields Push Up Canadian Crop Production Estimates

Aug 30, 2022

Better growing conditions on the Prairies are pushing national crop production estimates up for Canada, the July 2022 principal field crop areas report from Statistics Canada says. Nationally, it’s now estimated farmers will produce more wheat, canola, barley and oats based on estimates from satellite imagery and agroclimatic data.

Higher-than-average precipitation and more moderate temperatures have resulted in better crop conditions than in 2021 for parts of the Prairies, the report said. In Alberta, provincial reports indicate approximately three-quarters of the total crop were rated as being in good to excellent condition, well above 2021 reports.

The Crop Condition Assessment Program indicated overall plant health in the Prairie provinces was similar to higher-than-normal at the end of July. An assessment of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) curves, showed that despite a somewhat slower-than-normal start to the growing season, most areas of Western Canada have exceeded normal NDVI values. The report noted in most parts of the Prairies, crops reached peak health in line with normal crop development.

Nationally, wheat production is projected to increase by 55.1 per cent year over year to 34.6 million tonnes in 2022, due to higher anticipated yields. Harvested area is also expected to increase by 9.4 per cent to 24.9 million acres. In Alberta, wheat production is estimated to increase by 79.5 per cent to 11.5 million tonnes, due largely to higher yields, while harvested area will rise by 9.3 per cent to 7.4 million acres.

Canola production nationally is predicted to rise by 41.7 per cent to 19.5 million tonnes, as growing conditions in the Prairies improved considerably relative to 2021, pushing yields higher, the report said. In Alberta, it’s expected to increase by 49.1 per cent to 6.5 million tonnes. The projected increase in yields will offset a decrease in harvested area.

Higher national barley yields will offset lower anticipated harvested area. As a result, barley production will rise by 34.3 per cent year over year to 9.3 million tonnes in 2022, the report said.

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Video: Winter Canola Trial in Mississippi | Can It Work for Double Cropping? | Pioneer Agronomy

Can winter canola open new opportunities for growers in the Mid-South? In this agronomy update from Noxubee County, Mississippi, Pioneer agronomist Gus Eifling shares an early look at a first-year winter canola trial and what farmers are learning from the field.

Planted in late October on 30-inch rows, the crop is now entering the bloom stage and progressing quickly. In this video, we walk through current field conditions, fertility management, and how timing could make this crop a valuable option for double-cropping soybeans or cotton.

If harvest timing lines up with early May, growers may be able to transition directly into another crop during ideal planting windows. Ongoing field trials will help determine whether canola could become a viable rotational option for the region.

Watch for:

How winter canola is performing in its first season in this Mississippi field

Why growers chose 30-inch rows for this trial

What the crop looks like as it moves from bolting into bloom

Fertility strategy, including nitrogen and sulfur applications

How canola harvest timing could enable double-cropping with soybeans or cotton

Upcoming trials comparing soybeans after canola vs. traditional planting

As more growers look for ways to maximize acres and diversify rotations, experiments like this help determine what new crops might fit into existing systems.