Higher Yields Push Up Canadian Crop Production Estimates

Aug 30, 2022

Better growing conditions on the Prairies are pushing national crop production estimates up for Canada, the July 2022 principal field crop areas report from Statistics Canada says. Nationally, it’s now estimated farmers will produce more wheat, canola, barley and oats based on estimates from satellite imagery and agroclimatic data.

Higher-than-average precipitation and more moderate temperatures have resulted in better crop conditions than in 2021 for parts of the Prairies, the report said. In Alberta, provincial reports indicate approximately three-quarters of the total crop were rated as being in good to excellent condition, well above 2021 reports.

The Crop Condition Assessment Program indicated overall plant health in the Prairie provinces was similar to higher-than-normal at the end of July. An assessment of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) curves, showed that despite a somewhat slower-than-normal start to the growing season, most areas of Western Canada have exceeded normal NDVI values. The report noted in most parts of the Prairies, crops reached peak health in line with normal crop development.

Nationally, wheat production is projected to increase by 55.1 per cent year over year to 34.6 million tonnes in 2022, due to higher anticipated yields. Harvested area is also expected to increase by 9.4 per cent to 24.9 million acres. In Alberta, wheat production is estimated to increase by 79.5 per cent to 11.5 million tonnes, due largely to higher yields, while harvested area will rise by 9.3 per cent to 7.4 million acres.

Canola production nationally is predicted to rise by 41.7 per cent to 19.5 million tonnes, as growing conditions in the Prairies improved considerably relative to 2021, pushing yields higher, the report said. In Alberta, it’s expected to increase by 49.1 per cent to 6.5 million tonnes. The projected increase in yields will offset a decrease in harvested area.

Higher national barley yields will offset lower anticipated harvested area. As a result, barley production will rise by 34.3 per cent year over year to 9.3 million tonnes in 2022, the report said.

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Video: Seeing the Whole Season: How Continuous Crop Modeling Is Changing Breeding

Plant breeding has long been shaped by snapshots. A walk through a plot. A single set of notes. A yield check at the end of the season. But crops do not grow in moments. They change every day.

In this conversation, Gary Nijak of AerialPLOT explains how continuous crop modeling is changing the way breeders see, measure, and select plants by capturing growth, stress, and recovery across the entire season, not just at isolated points in time.

Nijak breaks down why point-in-time observations can miss critical performance signals, how repeated, season-long data collection removes the human bottleneck in breeding, and what becomes possible when every plot is treated as a living data set. He also explores how continuous modeling allows breeding programs to move beyond vague descriptors and toward measurable, repeatable insights that connect directly to on-farm outcomes.

This conversation explores:

• What continuous crop modeling is and how it works

• Why traditional field observations fall short over a full growing season

• How scale and repeated measurement change breeding decisions

• What “digital twins” of plots mean for selection and performance

• Why data, not hardware, is driving the next shift in breeding innovation As data-driven breeding moves from research into real-world programs, this discussion offers a clear look at how seeing the whole season is reshaping value for breeders, seed companies, and farmers, and why this may be only the beginning.