The crop is not in the bin yet, but the International Grains Council (IGC) on Thursday raised its world total grains production estimate from July, mainly on ideas of big American corn output.
At a record 2.23 billion tonnes, this month’s IGC forecast for 2020-21 world grains (wheat and coarse grains) output is up 6 million from last month, and includes upward revisions for wheat, sorghum and rye, along with corn.
Total world corn production is seen at record large 1.166 billion tonnes this month, up 2 million from the July estimate and 4% above the previous year’s crop of 1.121 billion. But with total corn consumption projected at 1.178 billion tonnes, up from 1.145 billion in 2019-20, global corn ending stocks are nevertheless seen sliding 12 million tonnes year-over-year to 288 million – the fourth straight annual decline.
In its August supply-demand update, the USDA pegged this year’s American corn crop at just over 388 million tonnes (15.27 billion bu), up 12% from a year earlier. However, the USDA’s latest estimate did not reflect the impact of an Aug. 10 ‘derecho’ that tore through parts of the Midwest, flattening millions of acres of crops. Ongoing dryness in parts of the No. 1 production state of Iowa, which also bore the brunt of the derecho, has also raised concerns that US corn production may fall short of expectations.
As for wheat, the IGC bumped its global production estimate 1 million tonnes higher from July and last year to a new high of 763 million. With expected consumption revised lower from last month, 2020-21 world wheat ending stocks are projected at 294 million tonnes this month, up from 288 million in July and 15 million or more than 5% above the previous year.
All told, total world grains ending stocks for 2020-21 are forecast at 630 million tonnes this month, up 5 million from July and 8 million above a year earlier.
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