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IL Corn Growers Association Monitoring Fertilizer Tariffs and 2024 Crop Budgets

By Lindsay Mitchell

Last week, the US Department of Commerce set a tax of 7.41% on imports of phosphate fertilizer from Morocco and Russia, which is a decrease from the previous rate of 19.97%.  The International Trade Commission also decided Wednesday night to maintain their initial determination that domestic industries suffered material harm from Moroccan imports.  While Commerce’s new rate is a positive step, it’s higher than the 2.12% recommended in the administrative review.

"Fertilizers represent a major cost of production for corn farmers, so we’ve been advocating for more competition in the marketplace,” said Dave Rylander, ICGA President and farmer. “These high import taxes imposed by the federal government are ultimately paid by the end user – farmers - so we’re very concerned about this decision.  We will continue working to lower input costs where we can and want our corn farmers to know that their profitability is a top concern for us.”

Also last week, the University of Illinois’s FarmDoc published a revised 2024 crop budget report showing negative average returns for farmers in all regions in Illinois. Fertilizer costs are estimated to represent about 35% of direct farm expenses.  High input costs coupled with lower prices will have drastic impacts for farmers.

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Iran War = “Trend is Your Friend” Short-Term BUT……

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Historically wars like the 2026 Iran war are bullish hard assets like grains, metals and energy! The funds are spooked and do not want to be short, but do they price in the news over time, similar to the Ukraine/Russian war that started on Feb. 24, 2022? A closure of the Strait of Hormuz is the key to the surge in crude oil, natural gas prices and fertilizer prices.  Grains are breaking out to new contract highs as a hedge against inflation.