'It's Not a Good Scenario': Wisconsin Farmer Says Continued Drought Could Mean Smaller Crop Yields

Jul 26, 2023

By Hope Kirwan

Luke Goessling grows corn and soybeans on about 700 acres near Whitewater. He had to replant about half of his corn this spring because of too much rain.

"We got 2 and a half inches of rain on the field the same day we finished planting and ended up having to replant it all," he said.

But the days of too much precipitation are long gone for most Wisconsin farmers. The state has experienced drought conditions for weeks, and the U.S. Department of Agriculture issued a drought disaster declaration for 27 counties last week.

The latest data from the U.S. Drought Monitor shows severe to extreme drought in much of southern Wisconsin, along with areas in the northwest part of the state.

Shawn Conley is a soybean and small grain specialist at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. He said many farmers who just finished harvesting winter wheat brought in quality grain. Conley said soybean fields are also doing OK, but they'll need at least an inch of rain per week until September to reach their best yields.

"If we don't get rain, we'll start seeing a yield hit on the soybean side of things," Conley said. "Corn is a different matter. I think we've already started to see some corn yield losses out there."

Goessling, who is also vice president of the Wisconsin Corn Growers Association, estimates it's a 50-50 split between farmers who are struggling with drought stress and those that have decent crops.

On his farm in Whitewater, Goessling said his early planted corn is heading into the pollination stage, a critical point in development that will determine the crop's yield. He said his late planted corn is looking surprisingly green, but it's still a long way from reaching the tassel stage. Overall, he said the ear count on his fields is definitely diminished from what he normally sees.

Scattered rain showers recently have helped ease the drought stress on a lot of fields. But Goessling said many producers are nervous about pollination this week and next, which needs more mild temperatures and adequate moisture to be successful.

"We're stacking up against some bad stuff happening here, with no rain in the forecast, 90 degree temperatures," Goessling said. "It's not a good scenario right now for most farmers in my area."

Conley said unlike soybeans, which can flower for four to six weeks, pollination for corn happens over the span of about a week. So one bad week can make a huge difference in final yields. He said the lack of moisture already in the soil also means both corn and soybeans will be more dependent on timely rains moving forward.

Data from the USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service found 62 percent of topsoil moisture and 61 percent of subsoil moisture are considered short or very short.

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Video: Why Your Food Future Could be Trapped in a Seed Morgue

In a world of PowerPoint overload, Rex Bernardo stands out. No bullet points. No charts. No jargon. Just stories and photographs. At this year’s National Association for Plant Breeding conference on the Big Island of Hawaii, he stood before a room of peers — all experts in the science of seeds — and did something radical: he showed them images. He told them stories. And he asked them to remember not what they saw, but how they felt.

Bernardo, recipient of the 2025 Lifetime Achievement Award, has spent his career searching for the genetic treasures tucked inside what plant breeders call exotic germplasm — ancient, often wild genetic lines that hold secrets to resilience, taste, and traits we've forgotten to value.

But Bernardo didn’t always think this way.

“I worked in private industry for nearly a decade,” he recalls. “I remember one breeder saying, ‘We’re making new hybrids, but they’re basically the same genetics.’ That stuck with me. Where is the new diversity going to come from?”

For Bernardo, part of the answer lies in the world’s gene banks — vast vaults of seed samples collected from every corner of the globe. Yet, he says, many of these vaults have quietly become “seed morgues.” “Something goes in, but it never comes out,” he explains. “We need to start treating these collections like living investments, not museums of dead potential.”

That potential — and the barriers to unlocking it — are deeply personal for Bernardo. He’s wrestled with international policies that prevent access to valuable lines (like North Korean corn) and with the slow, painstaking science of transferring useful traits from wild relatives into elite lines that farmers can actually grow. Sometimes it works. Sometimes it doesn’t. But he’s convinced that success starts not in the lab, but in the way we communicate.

“The fact sheet model isn’t cutting it anymore,” he says. “We hand out a paper about a new variety and think that’s enough. But stories? Plants you can see and touch? That’s what stays with people.”

Bernardo practices what he preaches. At the University of Minnesota, he helped launch a student-led breeding program that’s working to adapt leafy African vegetables for the Twin Cities’ African diaspora. The goal? Culturally relevant crops that mature in Minnesota’s shorter growing season — and can be regrown year after year.

“That’s real impact,” he says. “Helping people grow food that’s meaningful to them, not just what's commercially viable.”

He’s also brewed plant breeding into something more relatable — literally. Coffee and beer have become unexpected tools in his mission to make science accessible. His undergraduate course on coffee, for instance, connects the dots between genetics, geography, and culture. “Everyone drinks coffee,” he says. “It’s a conversation starter. It’s a gateway into plant science.”