USDA released its June milk production report which contained May’s milk production report. Below is a summary from that report:
Milk production in the United States during May totaled 18.6 billion pounds, up 1.2 percent from May 2015. Production per cow in the United States averaged 1,999 pounds for May, 23 pounds above May 2015. The number of milk cows on farms in the United States was 9.33 million head, 3,000 head more than May 2015, but unchanged from April 2016.
With the release of this data, Prof. Cropp released his June dairy market outlook. Below is a summary of this report:
This improvement in dairy product prices and milk prices is driven by expected strong butter and cheese sales, but also by an expectation that milk production could slow down due to lower milk prices, but also weather. Weather forecasts show that with La Nino conditions there is a high probability of hot and humid temperatures and dry conditions for the Central, Midwest and Northeast regions. Grain prices have also moved higher for the same weather conditions. These weather conditions would reduce milk per cow lowering milk production, lower milk composition, and reduce grain yields as well as forage supply increasing feed costs. There is also signs that world milk production may start to slow. Low milk prices appear to be affecting milk product in New Zealand and Australia and starting to do so in the EU. As world milk production slows world dairy product prices will improve. China may start to increase its imports of dairy products. So U.S. dairy exports could slowly improve during the second half of the year.