Traders and analysts were expecting few changes to the government’s 2024-25 US soybean supply-demand estimates this month, and the USDA delivered.
Aside from lowering some of its average price estimates, the USDA left its American soybean supply-demand outlook for the current marketing year unchanged from last month. Ending stocks were held at 470 million bu, up sharply from 370 million a year earlier. Going into today’s report, the average trade guess was for a minor 1-million bu decline in the ending stocks estimate to 469 million. Soybean futures were little changed as well, up 1-3 cents in trading this afternoon.
The 2024-25 season average soybean price is now forecast at $10.20/bu, down 60 cents from last month and well down from $12.40 a year earlier. The soybean meal price forecast was reduced as well, down $20 from November to $300/short ton. On the other hand, the forecasted soybean oil price was unchanged at 43 cents/lb.
This month’s global 2024-25 soybean outlook includes both higher production and ending stocks.
World soybean production is raised 1.7 million tonnes from November to 427.1 million (compared to 394.87 million in 2023-24) on higher area for Argentina and Bolivia and higher yields for Canada. The 2024-25 Argentina crop is now seen by the USDA at 52 million tonnes, up 1 million from November and above 48.21 million a year earlier. At 169 million tonnes, the 2024-25 Brazil soy production estimate was left unchanged from last month but remains up from 153 million in 2023-24.
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