Little Risk of Heavy Spring Runoff in Saskatchewan

Dry ground at freeze-up is reducing the chance of any above normal spring runoff in Saskatchewan.

In its annual assessment of conditions going into the winter, the Saskatchewan Water Security Agency on Wednesday said dryness across the provincial grain belt means the capacity of soils and storage capacity within wetland areas will be higher, “reducing the risk of above normal runoff come spring.”

In fact, even an above normal snowpack is unlikely to result in an above normal snowmelt runoff, given current moisture conditions, the agency said, noting current long-range forecasts suggest near normal to above normal precipitation and below normal temperatures over the winter months for much of the province.

Freeze-up conditions - in combination with the winter snowpack - form the initial base for the province’s spring snowmelt runoff forecast, the first of which is typically issued in February.

Due to minimal runoff in spring 2021 followed by what was generally a hot and dry summer, most agricultural areas of Saskatchewan are currently experiencing much drier than normal moisture conditions. Conditions are driest starting in the central area of the province around Saskatoon and extending in a south westerly direction toward Rosetown, down through Leader and then to the Maple Creek area.

While most larger water supply reservoirs across southern and central Saskatchewan have adequate supplies, some surface water users who rely on smaller reservoirs or dugouts have been impacted by the dry conditions, the agency said.

A provincial hydrological report released last week also noted extremely dry conditions at winter freeze-up in Manitoba, with Infrastructure Minister Ron Schuler suggesting 2022 growing conditions for farmers could be difficult as well, unless the province gets at least 100 centimetres of snow before spring.