Major Prairie Precipitation Deficits in 2021

If a picture really is worth a thousand words, then the map below perhaps best captures the scale and intensity of this year’s Prairie drought.

The map, which measures the precipitation deficit across Western Canada for the entire year, shows significant shortfalls compared to normal right from eastern Manitoba all the way to Alberta’s Peace River district, with the area around Regina being the only real exception. But even in that case, most of the precipitation that did fall came later in autumn, after most crops had already been largely harvested.

In select small pockets of Manitoba and Alberta (shown in dark red), precipitation in 2021 was at least 220 mm – more than 8 ½ inches – below normal.

As noted by Environment Canada, the dryness that marked 2021 started early, with the winter months across parts of Alberta the driest in 50 years. Edmonton had its second driest winter in 136 years, and in Calgary, spring rain was less than half of normal.

As spring turned to summer, persistent blocking ridges redirected the jet stream farther north keeping water-bearing clouds from forming, Environment Canada said. As a result, southern regions between British Columbia’s Lower Mainland and Interior, to the eastern Prairies (and Northwestern Ontario) faced one of their driest summers in 75 years, with many places recording less than half their normal rainfall during the growing season.

In Winnipeg, three-quarters of the warm-season rainfall fell over a period of just three days. Moreover, in a 60-day period from early June to mid-August – the most critical time for crops – a paltry 6% of normal rainfall occurred.

With extended periods of hot and dry conditions, no local moisture was being added to the atmosphere, further suppressing thunderstorm activity, Environment Canada added.

But while many Prairie regions continue to be plagued by drought, the latest Canadian Agricultural Weather Prognosticator from World Weather Inc., released earlier this month, suggests some optimism for next year may still be in order. After a dry start to the new-crop growing season, there is the potential for relief later in the spring and into the summer. Indeed, the report said confidence is rising over a better year in 2022 “with many of the worst drought impacted areas likely to get some needed moisture during the growing season.”