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Major U.S. Crop Condtions Mostly Unchanged In Latest USDA Crop Progress Report, But Pasture And Range Conditions Are Drought Stressed

Major U.S. Crop Condtions Mostly Unchanged In Latest USDA Crop Progress Report, But Pasture And Range Conditions Are Drought Stressed
The summer doldrums have arrived evidenced by virtually little to no change in the condition of the nation’s major crops from last week.
 
One area starting to gain some attention is the condition of the nation’s pasture and ranges as the overall rating sits at just 35 percent in the good to excellent category this week.
 
Continued dry conditions in the western and Rocky Mountain states as well as the High Plains is keeping the ratings low.
 
States registering the most stress include Oregon at 62 percent in the poor to very poor condition, New Mexico pasture and range is rated 59 percent poor to very poor, California is 55 percent poor to very poor, Texas is 44 percent poor to very poor, Wyoming is 41 percent poor to very poor and Oklahoma has 35 percent rated poor to very poor condition.
 
The nation’s cotton and grain sorghum crops are gradually showing some improvement.
 
This week the U.S. cotton crop is rated 47 percent good to excellent (44 percent last week), 31 percent is fair and 25 percent poor to very poor.
 
In the six major grain sorghum producing states, the crop is rated 51 percent in the good to excellent category (46 percent last week), 37 percent is fair, and 12 percent is poor to very poor.
 
Interesting to note that one year ago the grain sorghum crop was rated 73 percent in the good to excellent category.
 
There is no change in the status of the nation’s corn and soybean crops this week.
 
The U.S. corn crop continues to be rated 69 percent in the good to excellent category, 23 percent fair and 8 percent poor to very poor.
 
The soybean crop continues to sit at 69 percent in the good to excellent ranges, with 24 percent fair and 7 percent poor to very poor.
 
The nation’s winter wheat crop is nearing completion as 74 percent of the crop has been harvested which is right at the 5-year average.
 
To view the national crop progress report, click here.
 
For Oklahoma, corn silk reached 55 percent, up 2 points from the previous year but down 10 points from normal.
 
The Oklahoma grain sorghum crop is rated 34 percent good, 59 fair and 7 percent poor.
 
Grain sorghum headed reached 25 percent, up 6 points from the previous year but down 6 points from normal.
 
The Oklahoma soybean crop blooming reached 35 percent, up 25 points from the previous year and up 16 points from normal.
 
Peanuts pegging reached 42 percent, down 2 points from the previous year and down 7 points from normal.
 
The Oklahoma cotton crop is rated 75 percent good, 21 percent is fair and 4 percent is poor.
 
Cotton squaring reached 50 percent, down 19 points from the previous year and down 9 points from normal.
 
The second cutting of alfalfa hay reached 86 percent, unchanged from the previous year but down 3 points from normal. The third cutting of alfalfa hay reached 40 percent, up 2 points from the previous year and up 9 points from normal.
 
The first cutting of other hay reached 88 percent, down 11 points from the previous year and down 6 points from normal. The second cutting of other hay reached 24 percent, down 4 points from the previous year and down 7 points from normal.
 
Oklahoma pasture and range conditions are rated 37 percent good to excellent, 28 percent fair and 35 percent poor to very poor.
 
To view the Oklahoma report, click here.
 
The Kansas corn crop condition is rated 54 percent good to excellent, 32 percent fair and 14 percent poor to very poor.
 
The Kansas soybean crop condition rated 57 percent good to excellent, 34 percent fair and 9 percent poor to very poor.
 
The grain sorghum crop condition is rated 55 percent good to excellent, 36 percent fair and 9 percent poor to very poor.
 
Cotton condition is rated 43 percent good to excellent,46 percent fair and 11 percent poor to very poor.
 
Kansas pasture and range conditions are rated 38 percent good to excellent, 38 percent fair and 24 percent poor to very poor.
 
To view the Kansas crop progress report, click here.
 
For our southern neighbor of Texas dryland cotton suffered throughout the Plains due to lack of moisture, while irrigated cotton continued to progress. Irrigation was in full swing in South Texas and the Lower Valley.
 
The Texas cotton crop is rated 28 percent good to excellent, 38 percent fair and 34 percent is poor to very poor.
 
Corn was starting to silk in the Northern High Plains region of Texas. Spider mites were reported on some corn crops located in the Northern High Plains region. Corn and grain sorghum harvest was active in South Central Texas, the
Coastal Bend, the Upper Coast, South Texas and the Lower Valley. Dryland grain sorghum was struggling in the Edwards Plateau.
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Will the 2025 USDA December Crop Report Be a Market Mover/Surprise?

Video: Will the 2025 USDA December Crop Report Be a Market Mover/Surprise?


Historically, the USDA December crop report is a non-event or another dud report as the USDA reserves any final supply changes to the final report in January of the following year in this case 2026. But after the longest U.S. government shutdown in history at 43 days and no October crop report will they provide more data/surprise and make an exception?
Our China U.S. soybean purchase tracker is now at 26.6% or a total of 3.2 mmt but for traders it’s taking too long to unfold.
The final Stats Canada production report was bearish canola and wheat projection a record crop in both (it adds to the global glut of supplies) and bullish local corn and soybean prices in Ontario/Quebec thanks to a drought. It will not help the fund flow short-term, the USDA may need to offset it?
A U.S. Fed interest rate cut of another 25-basis point next Wednesday (probability 87.1%) could help fund flow and sentiment in stock and ag commodities into year end.
More inflows into Bitcoin this past week saw prices rebound back above 90,000 with support at 82,000 and resistance at 96,000.
A V-shaped bottom in cattle suggest the lows are in after Mexico reported another new world screwworm case. Lower weights, seasonal demand and higher U.S. beef select/choice values with a continued closure of the Mexican border to cattle will result in a resumption of higher cattle futures into yearend.
Australia is expected to produce its 3rd largest wheat crop ever at 36 mmt adding to the global glut of supplies.
Reports of ASF in hogs in Spain the largest pork exporter in Europe could see the U.S. win more pork export business long-term.
If the rains verify into next week of 3-5 inches for Brazil it would go a long way to fixing the dry regions from the last 2-months, but the European weather model has been wrong for the past 2-months!
Natural gas futures are surging to the 3rd price count as frigid hold temps set in.
CDN $ is also surging to end the week on a very resilient economy and better employment numbers suggesting no interest rate cuts next week.
Finally, the CFTC report showed funds were net buyers of soybeans but sellers of corn, canola and wheat. In real time the funds have gone back to selling as they take some profits.