Mostly dry conditions dominated Western Canada in August, suggesting Statistics Canada next crop production report later this month may still bear close watching.
As can be seen on the map below, most of western Saskatchewan and the area between Calgary and Edmonton in Alberta was abnormally dry over the past 30 days, including a large swath of farmland that saw less than 40% of normal precipitation. Except for a pocket extending east of Winnipeg, much of Manitoba has been dry as well.
Monday’s Statistics Canada crop report, the first for the 2022 season, showed a strong rebound in the expected production levels of most crops following last year’s devastating drought. But that report – based on a combination of satellite imagery and agroclimatic data, rather than actual farmer surveys – only captured conditions up until about the end of July, when most areas were still doing relatively better in terms of moisture.
Indeed, the 60-day precipitation map doesn’t show nearly the dryness displayed in the 30-day map, although some areas were admittedly still running short on rainfall. Temperatures throughout the month of August also trended warmer-than-normal for the Prairies, particularly in the more western areas, which exacerbated the dryness.
August rainfall will not mean as much for some Prairie crops compared to others in terms of yield potential, but the jury nevertheless remains out on final production. Statistics Canada will release its next set of model-based production estimates on Sept. 14, before issuing its final farmer survey-based estimates in December.
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