Map: Prairie Precipitation Deficits Worsen in March; Improve in Ontario

Apr 14, 2023

The month of March was a tale of two opposites, as precipitation deficits worsened across parts of Western Canada but showed significant improvement in Ontario.

Below-normal precipitation dominated Western Canada during the month, with a large swath of the Prairies only seeing 40% or less. On the other hand, southern Ontario received anywhere between 115 and 150% of normal precipitation since January.

At the end of the month, 83% of Prairie cropland was classified as abnormally dry or in some form of drought, up from 78% at the end of February. For the central region – which includes both Ontario and Quebec – abnormal dryness or drought was impacting just 5% of the cropland versus 17% a month earlier.

For the Prairies, parts of southern Manitoba, central Saskatchewan and central Alberta saw the lowest amounts of precipitation during March.

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Video: Midwest Weather Shock: Flash Drought Turns Into Heavy Rain Threat This Week (2026 Forecast)

A rapidly changing Midwest weather pattern is unfolding in 2026 as areas that recently slipped into abnormal dryness and flash drought conditions are now facing the threat of heavy rain and repeated storm systems.

After a wet spring erased early drought conditions, regions across Illinois, Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and northern Missouri have quickly dried out again since mid-to-late May. Soil moisture is dropping fast, and crops like corn and soybeans are beginning to feel the stress of rising temperatures and lack of consistent rainfall. Now, weather models show a major shift.

A developing system moving in from the Northern Plains is expected to bring multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms, with the potential for locally heavy rainfall across the Midwest. While some areas may miss out, others could finally see much-needed relief from the growing dryness. In this video, we break down:

Current drought conditions across the Midwest

Why a flash drought is developing quickly

Timing and path of incoming storm systems

Which states are most likely to see heavy rain

How long this wet pattern could last

Will this rain end the drought or create new flooding risks? Watch the full forecast to find out.