Map: Winter Wheat Area Affected by Drought Slowly Declining

Mar 16, 2023

The portion of US winter wheat area affected by drought is continuing to tick lower, although the big picture remains largely unchanged from the past few months and last fall.

As the map below shows, an estimated 53% of nationwide winter wheat areas were impacted by drought as of March 14. That is down just a couple of points from a week earlier and close to one and two months ago, when drought was impacting 57% and 59% of US winter wheat area.

In fact, the amount of national winter wheat area affected by drought now is almost the same as mid-September (54%) when farmers were first starting to plant the crop that will be harvested this summer. The percentage increased in October and peaked in November at 75% before gradually beginning to ease through December and the first part of the New Year.

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Video: Midwest Weather Shock: Flash Drought Turns Into Heavy Rain Threat This Week (2026 Forecast)

A rapidly changing Midwest weather pattern is unfolding in 2026 as areas that recently slipped into abnormal dryness and flash drought conditions are now facing the threat of heavy rain and repeated storm systems.

After a wet spring erased early drought conditions, regions across Illinois, Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and northern Missouri have quickly dried out again since mid-to-late May. Soil moisture is dropping fast, and crops like corn and soybeans are beginning to feel the stress of rising temperatures and lack of consistent rainfall. Now, weather models show a major shift.

A developing system moving in from the Northern Plains is expected to bring multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms, with the potential for locally heavy rainfall across the Midwest. While some areas may miss out, others could finally see much-needed relief from the growing dryness. In this video, we break down:

Current drought conditions across the Midwest

Why a flash drought is developing quickly

Timing and path of incoming storm systems

Which states are most likely to see heavy rain

How long this wet pattern could last

Will this rain end the drought or create new flooding risks? Watch the full forecast to find out.