Modest Increase in Corn, Soybean Intentions

Apr 29, 2021

Similar to their US counterparts, Canadian producers will increase the area seeded to both corn and soybeans this year, although underwhelmingly so.

Tuesday’s Statistics Canada acreage report pegged nationwide corn intentions for 2021 at 3.62 million acres, up 1.8% from a year ago. Soybean area is seen at 5.34 million acres, an increase of 5.5% from 2020.

Those are relatively modest increases – corn area would still be below the 3.69 million acres seeded in 2019 and soybeans well off the 2017 record of 7.28 million acres – considering the fact corn and soybean futures are trading at their highest levels since 2013.

American corn and soybean intentions for this year also came in surprisingly low, with the USDA’s March 31 planting intentions report putting intended US corn area at 91.1 million acres, up just 325,000 or less than 1% from 2020. At 87.6 million acres, intended US soybean area was up 5% from last year but well below expectations closer to 90 million.

In the largest production province of Ontario, farmers said they anticipate planting 2.229 million acres of corn this year, up just 1.7% from 2020 although still a new record high - barely topping the previous high of 2.225 million in both 2012 and 2013.

Quebec farmers expect to plant more acres of corn, with seeded area increasing 1.2% to 901,300 acres in 2021.

Manitoba corn planted area for 2021 is seen rising to 398,400 acres from 372,400 the previous year but still below the 2019 level of 459,800.

For soybeans, farmers in Ontario expect to plant 2.9 million acres, up 2% from last year but below 2017, 2018 and 2019 when planted are exceeded 3 million acres.

Farmers in Manitoba anticipate increasing soybean planted area by 17.3% to 1.3 million acres, the first time soybean area in the province has risen since 2017.

Soybean area in Quebec is expected to rise 4.2% to 923,000 acres.

Saskatchewan corn intentions for this year are estimated at 20,700 acres, down from 22,500 in 2020, while Alberta corn intentions are down to 31,300 from 40,800. StatsCan did not provide any estimates for 2021 Saskatchewan and Alberta soybean area.

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Agricultural Market Update: Grain Prices, Crop Conditions, and Weather Impacts

Welcome back to our channel where we provide comprehensive updates on the latest trends and changes in the agricultural sector. This week, we're looking at significant movements in grain prices, crop conditions, and the effects of weather patterns. Let's dive into the details:

Grain Price Decline Grain prices have fallen to their lowest levels since 2020, with December corn down 4.3% and November soybeans losing 3.1%. This decline is partly due to the beneficial moisture brought by Hurricane Beryl to the Midwest, which has improved crop conditions significantly. The USDA reported that corn and soybean crops are in their best condition in four years, contributing to the downward pressure on prices.

Record Short Positions and Market Sentiment Fund traders have increased their net short positions in the corn market to a record level, with a net short of 347,000 contracts of corn. This reflects a bearish sentiment in the market, further influencing grain price dynamics. Similar selling trends were observed in soybeans and SRW wheat, indicating broad market caution.

Weather Impact and Forecast Hurricane Beryl has brought significant rainfall across Arkansas, Missouri, western Tennessee, western Kentucky, and southern Illinois, with more expected over Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana in the coming days. Despite this, the market is currently more focused on the moisture benefits rather than potential heat risks forecasted in the 6-10 and 8-14 day periods.

US Crop Conditions Corn and soybean conditions have shown slight improvements last week, with corn rated 68% good to excellent and soybeans at 68%. These are among the best ratings for this time of year since 2020, suggesting robust crop health that could continue to influence grain prices.

Winter Wheat Harvest and Spring Wheat Conditions The US winter wheat harvest is progressing well, ahead of schedule with significant portions already harvested in Kansas and Texas. Spring wheat conditions are also favorable, with 75% rated good to excellent, although there have been some declines in states like Idaho, South Dakota, and Washington. Brazil's Corn Harvest and US Exports Brazil's second corn crop harvest is advancing rapidly due to favorable hot and dry conditions, with 63% of the crop already harvested. Meanwhile, US corn shipments saw a substantial increase last week, indicating strong export demand, which contrasts with the recent drop in domestic grain prices.

Ongoing Developments Lastly, the USDA reported a flash sale of corn, with significant quantities sold to unknown destinations, scheduled for delivery over the next two marketing years. This could signal ongoing international demand for US corn despite lower prices.

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