New-Crop Canola Ending Stocks Estimate Trimmed

Mar 20, 2024

Agriculture Canada has trimmed its new-crop canola ending stocks forecast in the wake of a smaller-than-expected planted area estimate.

Updated monthly supply-demand estimates from the government on Tuesday pegged 2024-25 canola ending stocks at 1.65 million tonnes, down 300,000 from the February projection and below the 2023-24 forecast of 2 million, which remains unchanged from last month. If accurate, new-crop canola ending stocks would again fall below the five-year average of 2.5 million tonnes.

The March supply-demand estimates reflect the Statistics Canada acreage report released earlier this month which reported 2024 Canadian canola intentions at 21.4 million acres, below Ag Canada’s forecast made in January of 21.7 million. Although Ag Canada did revise its new-crop canola yield estimate slightly higher from last month, the lower planted area estimate trimmed the government canola production forecast to 18.1 million tonnes from 18.365 million in February and below 18.328 million last year.

With projected 2024-25 exports and crush holding steady from last month at 7.7 million and 10.5 million tonnes – and other demand estimates little changed – the drop in production went straight to the bottom line and tightened the ending stocks estimate.

Ag Canada did lower its average canola price forecast, dropping it $20 from last month to $625/tonne, versus $685 for the current year.

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Western Canadian agriculture produced the most advanced farmers in the world not through abundance but through adversity. The crow rate fell. The wheat price went nowhere. The brown envelopes stopped.

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Dennis Bulani is CEO of Rack Petroleum and Ultimate Yield in Biggar, Saskatchewan. Dan Aberhart hosts GTF Productions, Western Canadian Agriculture's foremost live briefing platform and its foremost AI training platform for ag operators