FCC Ag Economics is doing a mid-year check-in on our January 2019 Outlooks. Throughout July and August, we’ll update our expectations about profitability across seven Canadian ag sectors (dairy, broilers, red meat, food processing, agribusiness, horticulture and grains, oilseeds and pulses). We’ll describe what’s happened in 2019 to-date and what you should monitor in the next six months.
The outlook continues to improve for several Canadian crop sectors. There’s no change from our mixed January profitability forecast for grains: spring wheat continues to trend at roughly break-even or just above, while winter wheat margins will be pressured throughout the rest of the year. Corn margins are expected to be positive. Profitability of canola, soybeans and lentils should also remain near break-even.
Significant headwinds persist, however. Trade tensions between China and the U.S and market access challenges for Canadian crops remain the main hurdles to profitability. Growth in this year’s crop production will be required to make up for continued low prices expected for soybeans, pulses and canola. Prices for Canadian corn are highly variable right now, with U.S. supply a major uncertainty.
Source : FCC