Pea, Lentil Ending Stocks Heavier

Sep 26, 2022

Canadian dry pea and lentil ending stocks for 2022-23 will be much heavier than previously expected, thanks to larger old-crop carryovers and bigger crops this year.

Updated monthly supply-demand estimates released by Agriculture Canada Friday pegged 2022-23 dry pea ending stocks at 650,000 tonnes, more than double the August forecast of just 300,000 and nearly 69% above a year earlier. Lentil stocks were estimated at 400,000, up from 200,000 last month and 224,000 in 2021-22.

The September Ag Canada supply-demand estimates reflect Statistics Canada’s Sept. 7 grain stocks report, as well as its Sept. 14 crop production report.

The grain stocks report showed larger end-of-season supplies for both peas and lentils compared to earlier expectations. For peas, carryin stocks for 2022-23 are now estimated at 385,000 tonnes, up from Ag Canada’s August forecast of 250,000, while lentil carryin stocks are seen at 224,000 tonnes, versus 150,000 last month.

Meanwhile, the crop production report raised the 2022 pea production estimate to 3.58 million tonnes from 3.3 million last month and 2.25 million a year ago. Lentil output was bumped up to 2.77 million tonnes from 2.46 million in August and 1.6 million in 2021.

Amid the heavier supplies, Ag Canada trimmed its 2022-23 price outlook for both crops, with the season average pea price now expected at $440/tonne, down $40 from August and well below $590 in 2021-22. At $750/tonne, the average lentil price is down $50 from last month and $220 below a year ago.

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Dennis Bulani is CEO of Rack Petroleum and Ultimate Yield in Biggar, Saskatchewan. Dan Aberhart hosts GTF Productions, Western Canadian Agriculture's foremost live briefing platform and its foremost AI training platform for ag operators