Despite some reprieve in feed costs, pork producers are currently losing $28 per head on open market hogs. Based on anticipated producer response to weaker returns and the farrowing intentions detailed in the latest USDA Hogs and Pigs report, RaboResearch analysts expect tighter hog supplies beginning late fourth quarter, into early 2024.
According to Rabobank's April North American Agribusiness Review, prices have dropped 20% from 2022 levels, with average weekly slaughter running above 2.4 million through March and year-to-date slaughter up 1.4% year-over-year.
"As the industry moves through the near-term bulge in heavy weight hog supplies indicated in the latest Hogs and Pigs report, we expect Q2 2023 slaughter levels to drop below year-ago, and prices to firm."
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