Pork consumption continues to disappoint

Apr 24, 2023

Despite some reprieve in feed costs, pork producers are currently losing $28 per head on open market hogs. Based on anticipated producer response to weaker returns and the farrowing intentions detailed in the latest USDA Hogs and Pigs report, RaboResearch analysts expect tighter hog supplies beginning late fourth quarter, into early 2024.

According to Rabobank's April North American Agribusiness Review, prices have dropped 20% from 2022 levels, with average weekly slaughter running above 2.4 million through March and year-to-date slaughter up 1.4% year-over-year.

"As the industry moves through the near-term bulge in heavy weight hog supplies indicated in the latest Hogs and Pigs report, we expect Q2 2023 slaughter levels to drop below year-ago, and prices to firm."

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Video: Season 7, Episode 1: Managing Risk and Seeing Opportunities in U.S. Pork Production

Today’s episode features three guests discussing the similarities and differences between pork production in the United States and Brazil, along with strategies for managing risk in today’s industry while recognizing and acting on opportunities. First, Dr. Anne Caroline de Lara, executive manager of live pig production at Seara Alimentos, a JBS company in Brazil, is joined by Dr. Matthew Turner, head of operations for JBS Live Pork. Together, they discuss how labor, climate and ventilation challenges vary between Brazil and the United States, while underscoring their shared commitment to raising healthy pigs. They also point to lessons producers in both countries can take from one another’s systems and on-farm experiences. Then, Brady Reicks, risk manager at Reicks View Farms, shares his perspective on risk management, drawing from his background in markets and his transition into farming. He discusses how protecting margins varies by operation and offers practical approaches producers can use to make marketing and business decisions with greater confidence rather than hesitation.

Both conversations were recorded at recent industry events focused on swine livability, including the International Conference on Pig Livability and Iowa Swine Day.