Jack Frost paid an early visit to Western Canada to end the Labour Day weekend, although the extent of any possible crop damage remains uncertain.
Saskatchewan was perhaps the hardest hit, with temperatures at Coronach, near the Canadian-US border, reportedly dipping down to nearly -9 degrees C overnight Monday. Temperatures elsewhere in the province were more moderate, although also well below the freezing mark and in some cases breaking cold weather marks that had stood for more than a century.
Saskatchewan crop extension specialist Shannon Friesen said today the bulk of the crop in the province was either already in the bin or mature when the frost hit, but added some canola and later-seeded spring cereals may have still have been vulnerable to damage. Later-seeded flax and soybeans may have also been impacted, she added.
The fact it can take a few days for frost damage to become apparent also makes it difficult to immediately assess how badly crops were hurt, she said.
“We won’t really know exactly how much damage we have for a while; likely not until that crop actually comes off,” Friesen said.
The latest provincial crop report on Thursday pegged the overall harvest in Saskatchewan at 28% complete as of early last week, 6 points ahead of the five-year average. An estimated 11% of the canola was in the bin, along with nearly 20% of the spring wheat and almost 40% of the durum. Oats and barley were 18% and 37% harvested, respectively.
Regardless of the uncertainty, the frost did seem to throw a scare into the canola market today, with futures jumping by around $10/tonne before backing off into the close. The November and January contracts still finished the day with gains of more than $7.
Ian Epp, an agronomy specialist with the Canola Council of Canada, described the frost in Saskatchewan as “fairly widespread,” but was also unsure about how much unharvested crop in the province still had not yet reached maturity.
“A lot of canola and other crops were past that stage,” he said. “It’s hard to say how much was actually still susceptible to frost.
“I think it will be a small amount for the most part. With the weather we’ve had in the last little while (warm and dry), crops can progress pretty quickly. The majority of the crop I think will be unaffected. But it will take a few days to really see all the damage.”
The patchy nature of frost and variability of the canola crop itself adds another layer of uncertainty, Epp said, adding that in some cases, a heavy canopy can keep frost from penetrating too deeply into a crop.
Warmer weather is expected to return to the Prairies, starting Wednesday in western Alberta and moving into Manitoba by Thursday. However, cooler temperatures are forecast again by the weekend.
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