Producer Profit Margins to Stay Below Average in 2025-26: FCC

Feb 14, 2025

Canadian grain and oilseed producers are facing another challenging year ahead, with profit margins projected to remain below average in 2025-26, according to Farm Credit Canada (FCC). While the immediate threat of U.S. tariffs has been temporarily deferred, economic conditions remain difficult, though showing signs of modest improvement.

In its 2025 economic outlook last month, FCC economists J.P. Gervais, Krishen Rangasamy, and Desmond Sobool provided an overview of current global and Canadian economic conditions, along with a look at what may be ahead for the various agricultural sectors. The bottom line was generally weaker economic growth both here and worldwide, and another year of below average profit margins for crop producers in both western and eastern Canada.

According to Sobool, Prairie margins for a wheat-canola rotation (before land costs) are expected to hover just above $50/acre in 2025-26. While this marks an improvement from 2024-25, when some farmers saw negative margins, it remains below the five-year average of approximately $100/acre.

The FCC’s 2025 crop outlook, released after the economic forecast, projects new-crop canola prices at $600/tonne, spring wheat at $330, and durum at $425 — figures that either match or fall below five-year averages. Canola, in particular, is forecasted to decline from its 2024-25 average of $645.

On a more positive note, Sobool highlighted the downward trend in input costs, with fertilizer affordability expected to improve further in 2025-26.

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Video: Independent Seed, National Impact | On The Brink: Episode 9

A survey of 200 independent seed businesses reveals what Canada's seed sector actually contributes — and what it stands to lose.

On the Brink, Justin Funk, a third-generation agri-marketer, shares the findings of a national survey conducted in early 2026. The numbers reframe the conversation: independent seed companies in Canada represent upwards of $1.7 billion in dedicated seed infrastructure, approximately 3,000 full-time equivalent jobs in rural communities, and an estimated $20 million in annual community contributions. And roughly 90% of Canada's cereals, pulses, and other small pollinated crops flow through them.

The survey also asked how dependent these businesses are on public plant breeding to survive. The answer was unambiguous. For policymakers evaluating the future of publicly funded breeding programs, Funk argues the economic case for this sector and the case for public plant breeding are the same argument.

On the Brink is a cross-country video series exploring the future of plant breeding in Canada. Each episode features voices from across the industry in an open, ongoing conversation about innovation and long-term investment in Canadian agriculture.