First Quarter Review
How time flies! According to the grain shipping calendar from the Canadian Grain Commission, we are now through the first quarter of 2024/25. With the weekly CGC data for week 13, the first three months of this marketing year, we can get a bit of a feel for how 2024/25 is progressing.
Before we dive into the numbers, there are a few things to note. Probably the most important is that movement of pulses, especially peas, tends to be heavier in the first quarter due to strong off-the-combine deliveries and large new-crop sales that need to be filled. Also, in the CGC data, exports by container are not reported and for peas and lentils, this typically accounts for roughly 30% and 40% of total exports, respectively. The CGC data also doesn’t include movement through unlicensed elevators or crops trucked by farmers directly into the US.
When we look at the CGC data, the pace of farmer deliveries is the first “leading indicator” of exports, as grain companies draw in crops to keep the pipeline supplied. The next indicator is shipments from country elevators, which tell us how many tonnes are being moved to export positions, as well as other destinations. Then finally, we see the export numbers, which are only those crops moved in bulk vessels. For pulses, this generally means yellow peas and red lentils.
It’s been a very good start to the year for Canadian pea movement. Farmers have already delivered 1.37 mln tonnes of peas, well above average. Through the first quarter, 1.05 mln tonnes of bulk exports have happened, well above last year at 718,000 tonnes and the 5-year average of 818,000 tonnes. In fact, this is the strongest start since 2020/21, but it also means the pace will need to slow later in 2024/25. Unfortunately, the CGC weekly data doesn’t provide destinations but we know from StatsCan export data for August and September that (no surprise), India and China are the two dominant destinations for peas.
When it comes to lentils, the first quarter of 2024/25 started off very slowly, but the pace has started to pick up. Farmer deliveries have reached 740,000 tonnes, roughly 100,000 tonnes more than the 5-year average. Bulk exports were trailing for most of the first quarter but recently moved ahead of both last year and the 5-year average pace. According to StatsCan’s export data for August and September, India is the largest destination so far, followed by Türkiye. Heavy movement is expected to continue for the next few weeks at least, as farmer deliveries (the leading indicator) are continuing to run well above average recently.
Because chickpeas and dry beans aren’t exported in bulk vessel shipments, the CGC data doesn’t provide much data for those crops. According to StatsCan’s export data for August and September, 20,000 tonnes of chickpeas have been exported so far, slightly behind average and well below last year. Keep in mind, this wouldn’t have included much, if any, new-crop chickpea supplies, which are much larger than last year.
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