Agriculture Canada has raised its 2021 Canadian production estimates for dry peas, lentils and canaryseed compared to June, although drought and heat on the Prairies will likely mean actual output comes in much lower.
Meanwhile, other pulse and special crop production estimates were reduced.
In its July supply-demand estimates released Tuesday, Ag Canada pegged this year’s lentil crop at 2.75 million tonnes, up 100,000 from the previous month but still below 2.868 million last year, while expected canary production was raised 40,000 tonnes to 180,000, an increase of 11% over 2020. The dry pea crop inched up 50,000 tonnes from last month to 4 million, down from 4.59 million a year ago.
In its accompanying commentary, Ag Canada said the hot and dry conditions that are continuing to adversely affect Western Canada and are “a cause for significant uncertainty at this time in the growing season in regard to estimates of yield and production.”
With projected seeded and harvested area down slightly from last month – to reflect last month’s Statistics Canada June acreage report – all of the increase in expected dry pea output from June is due to a slightly higher yield estimate. Ag Canada now sees an average yield of 39.2 bu/acre, up from 38.6 bu in June but down from 40.5 bu in 2020.
But with a small uptick in expected domestic use, dry pea ending stocks for 2021-22 are unchanged from last month at 300,000 tonnes, down from 450,000 in 2020-21.
For lentils, estimated planted and harvested is up from last month, while the average expected yield, at 1,427 lbs/acre, is up from 1,409 lbs in June but down from 1,498 lbs in 2020. All of the expected increase in lentil output compared to June is absorbed by a higher export forecast, leaving 2021-22 ending stocks unchanged from last month at 100,000 tonnes – on par with 2020-21.
The increase in canaryseed production from last month is due to larger planted and harvested area estimates, rising to 313,800 and 306,400 acres from 244,600 and 237,200 acres in June. The expected yield is down slightly from last month and last year at 1,293 lbs/acre. With the larger crop, 2021-22 ending stocks are now seen at 20,000 tonnes, versus 5,000 in June and 10,000 a year earlier.
Meanwhile, the dry bean, chickpea, mustard and sunflower production estimates were all downgraded from June, with ending stocks forecasts tightening accordingly.
Mustard ending stocks saw one of the steepest declines, dropping to just 5,000 tonnes from 20,000 in June and 25,000 for 2020-21, the result of expected production falling to 114,000 tonnes from 133,000, all due to lower planted and harvested area estimates, as per the June StatsCan report.
Projected dry bean ending stocks for 2021-22 fall to 95,000 tonnes from 125,000 in June and 120,000 in 2020-21, while chickpea ending stocks drop to 225,000 tonnes, down 30,000 from last month and 270,000 the previous year. Sunflower ending stocks edge down 5,000 tonnes from last month to 120,000, compared to 130,000 in 2020-21.
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