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Record Drop in Farm Income Expected in 2024

Farmers can expect the largest recorded year-to-year dollar drop in net farm income in 2024. Income is estimated to be nearly $40 billion lower this year compared to 2023, down more than 25%. American Farm Bureau Federation economists analyzed the latest USDA data in a Market Intel.

Net farm income is the profit farmers see after paying for operating expenses. Two major factors are impacting income forecasts – lower prices paid to farmers for crops and livestock, and increased costs for supplies. While these are early estimates and they could change throughout the year, USDA anticipates a decrease in net farm income, moving from $156 billion in 2023 to $116 billion in 2024.

“Farm families are suffering through the same economic hardships as all families in America,” said AFBF President Zippy Duvall. “High inflation is making the food farmers grow more expensive to produce, and is cutting into the income farm families rely on to pay bills, provide an education for their children, and reinvest in their community. We urge Congress to focus on bringing costs down and passing a new farm bill, both of which will help ensure farmers can continue meeting the needs of a growing nation.”

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USDA took Trumps comments that China would buy more U.S. soybeans seriously and headline news that the U.S./China trade truce would be extended when Trump/Xi meet in the first week of April was a BIG WIN for soybeans this week! 2026 “Mini” U.S. ethanol boom thanks to 45Z + China’s ban of phosphates from Feb. – August of 2026 will not help lower fertilizer prices anytime soon! 30 mmt of Chinese corn harvest is of poor quality and maybe a technical breakout in wheat futures.

*Apologies! Where we talk about the latest CFTC update as of 10th Feb 2026, managed money funds covered their net short position in canola to the tune of +42,746 week-on-week to flip to net long 145 contracts and not (as we mistakenly said) +90,009 wk/wk to 47,408.