Seasonal Canola Upturn Soon Possible

Sep 21, 2022

Canola futures may soon be due for a seasonal turn higher as harvest pressure subsides and prices look more attractive to end users.

While the market trended lower over the summer, MarketsFarm analyst Mike Jubinville said he expects farmer deliveries to soon lighten up, with the lows possibly in place for the time being. He placed chart support in the November contract at C$760 to C$770/tonne, with the close back above $800 on Wednesday a bullish technical signal - if the market can hold above that point in subsequent sessions.

Higher canola prices in the spring led to some demand destruction and an eventual downturn in the futures in June, but Jubinville said the situation has corrected itself.

“We are price competitive internationally again,” he said, noting that China was already thought to be in the market buying Canadian canola with movement to the country likely to pick up over the next few months.

Meanwhile, domestic crush margins remain in the stratosphere. The crush margin for October delivery reported by ICE Futures came in at C$320/ tonne above the November contract as of Wednesday, well above average levels and up by over $100 in the past month.

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Border View Farms is a mid-sized family farm that sits on the Ohio-Michigan border. My name is Nathan. I make and edit all of the videos posted here. I farm with my dad, Mark and uncle, Phil. Our part-time employee, Brock, also helps with the filming. 1980 was our first year in Waldron where our main farm is now. Since then we have grown the operation from just a couple hundred acres to over 3,000. Watch my 500th video for a history of our farm I filmed with my dad.

I started making these videos in the fall of 2019 as a way to help show what I do on a daily basis as a farmer. Agriculture is different from any other industry and I believe the more people that are showing their small piece of agriculture, helps to build our story. We face unique challenges and stressful situations but have some of the most rewarding payoffs in the end. I get to spend everyday doing what I love, raising my kids on the farm, and trying to push our farm to be better every year. I hope that I can address questions or concerns that you might have about farms and agriculture.