Semi-Annual Global Fertilizer Outlook

Dec 09, 2020

Prices across the global fertilizer complex have climbed off ten-year lows during the second half of 2020, primarily supported by improved demand in several major geographies. This has played out most significantly in Brazil and India, two of the top-three biggest importers in the globe for the last five years.

In Brazil, improved commodity prices continue to fuel the run of strong farmer margins. “This year, we expect fertilizer demand in Brazil to increase for the fifth straight year. Year-to-date imports have risen 8% YOY, a 23% increase on 2015,”according to Matheus Almeida, Senior Analyst – Farm Inputs at Rabobank.

In India, a strong kharif season and local government reforms contributed to a surge in local sales – the local government reported a 15% YOY increase in fertilizer sales for the first half of the year.

Demand has picked up in other regions too. In Australia, Rabobank expects winter crop production to increase 63% YOY, which has already translated to a 26% YOY increase in nitrogen sales in 1H 2020.

Heavy supplies and growing production capacity will continue to weigh on prices across the nutrient complex. “In the immediate term, we expect urea and phosphate prices to continue to be supported by demand until the start of Q2 2021. Once seasonal demand from the northern hemisphere subsides, markets will again be exposed to heavy supplies,” says Almeida. The International Fertilizer Association expects another 9m metric tons of urea production capacity – a 4.5% increase and well above their forecast demand growth of 1%. Almost half of that new capacity is likely to appear in India, reducing its activity in global markets.

“On an encouraging note for fertilizer suppliers, we see a more positive time ahead for potash markets. We expect that importers in China and India will continue to cover inventories, and sustained demand in the US and Brazil will ensure demand remains,” concludes Almeida. On the supply side, current low prices may limit production in high-cost plants and delay new projects coming online. As a result, potash prices are expected to increase at a constant rate over 1H 2021.

Click here to download the report

Source : Rabobank

Video: Why Port Infrastructure is Key to Growing Canada's Farms and Economy

Grain Farmers of Ontario (GFO) knows that strong, modern port infrastructure is vital to the success of Canada’s agriculture. When our ports grow, Ontario grain farmers and Canadian farms grow too—and when we grow, Canada grows.

In this video, we highlight the importance of investing in port infrastructure and how these investments are key to growing Ontario agriculture and supporting global trade. The footage showcases the strength of both Ontario’s farming landscapes and vital port operations, including some key visuals from HOPA Ports, which we are grateful to use in this project.

Ontario’s grain farmers rely on efficient, sustainable ports and seaway systems to move grain to markets around the world. Port investments are crucial to increasing market access, driving economic growth, and ensuring food security for all Canadians.

Why Port Infrastructure Matters:

Investing in Ports = Investing in Farms: Modernized ports support the export of Canadian grain, driving growth in agriculture.

Sustainable Growth: Learn how stronger ports reduce environmental impact while boosting economic stability.

Global Trade Opportunities: Improved port and seaway systems help farmers access new global markets for their grain.

Stronger Communities: Investment in ports means more stable jobs and economic growth for rural communities across Ontario and Canada.

We are proud to support the ongoing investment in port infrastructure and to shine a light on its vital role in feeding the world and securing a prosperous future for Canadian agriculture.

Special thanks to HOPA Ports for providing some of the stunning port footage featured in this video.