Sentiment Falls as Producers Express Concerns About Ag Exports

 

 

The Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer fell to 135 in March, given uncertainty around trade relations and possible implications for U.S ag exports.

 

The 5-point decline in sentiment comes as a result of producers’ less-optimistic perceptions of both current conditions and future expectations. The Index of Current Conditions fell 9 points in March to 134, while the Index of Future Expectations dropped by 4 points to 135. The barometer and both sub-indices are based on a monthly survey of 400 U.S. agricultural producers.

 

On the March survey, producers expressed both concern and uncertainty surrounding trade. Nearly half (47 percent) of respondents said that a trade war negatively impacting agricultural exports was somewhat likely, compared with just 28 percent who thought it was unlikely. The remaining 25 percent indicated uncertainty with a neutral rating.

 

Producers also were asked about the likelihood of a U.S. withdrawal from the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). More than one-third expressed uncertainty, while 28 percent expected the U.S. to remain in NAFTA and 34 percent said they expect the U.S. to exit the agreement.

 

“Interestingly, when comparing results from the two trade questions, a larger share of respondents reported a significant decline in agricultural exports from a trade war was more likely than the U.S. withdrawing from NAFTA,” said James Mintert, director of Purdue University’s Center for Commercial Agriculture and principal investigator on the barometer project. “These results are important for two reasons. First, nearly half of producers rated the risk of a trade war as at least somewhat likely. Second, producers’ concerns about risks to agricultural trade are broader than just the ongoing NAFTA situation.”

 

The March survey also asked producers whether they thought now was a good time to make large farm investments, such as machinery or buildings. At 68 percent, the portion of producers indicating now is a bad time to make large investments is the highest level observed since May 2017. Mintert said this could be related to the trade situation.

 

“Concerns about agricultural exports, especially as they relate to Chinese tariffs on U.S. ag products, could be one reason why fewer producers said now is a good time to make large farm investments,” he said.

 

Read the full March Ag Economy Barometer report at http://purdue.edu/agbarometer. The Ag Economy Barometer, Index of Current Conditions and Index of Future Expectations are available on the Bloomberg Terminal under the following ticker symbols: AGECBARO, AGECCURC and AGECFTEX. 

 

Video: Evolution of Beef Cattle Farming

The Clear Conversations podcast took to the road for a special episode recorded in Nashville during CattleCon, bringing listeners straight into the heart of the cattle industry. Host Tracy Sellers welcomed rancher Steve Wooten of Beatty Canyon Ranch in Colorado for a wide-ranging discussion that blended family history and sustainability, particularly as it relates to the future of beef production.

Sustainability emerged as a central theme of the conversation, a word that Wooten acknowledges can mean very different things depending on who you ask. For him, sustainability starts with the soil. Healthy soil produces healthy grass, which supports efficient cattle capable of producing year after year with minimal external inputs. It’s an approach that equally considers vegetation, animal efficiency, and long-term profitability.

That philosophy aligned naturally with Wooten’s involvement in the U.S. Roundtable for Sustainable Beef, where he served as a representative for the Colorado Cattlemen’s Association. The roundtable brings together the entire beef supply chain—from producers to retailers—along with universities, NGOs, and allied industries. Its goal is not regulation, Wooten emphasized, but collaboration, shared learning, and continuous improvement.