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Soybean exports surge globally

Brazil and Argentina drive growth in global soybean exports

By Farms.com

Recent data from the USDA Oil Crops Outlook highlights a robust increase in the global soybean trade for the 2023/24 marketing year, thanks primarily to heightened exports from key South American nations.

The total trade is now forecasted at 175.1 million metric tons, with predictions set even higher at 180.2 million metric tons for the subsequent year.

Brazil, a leading soybean exporter, has its projections for 2023/24 set at 103.0 million metric tons, maintaining a steady output into 2024/25 with 105.0 million metric tons.

Argentina follows suit with an adjusted export figure of 5.6 million metric tons for 2023/24. These increases are in response to strong international demand, particularly from China, which has adjusted its import forecast up to 108.0 million metric tons for the current marketing year.

Concurrently, the U.S. soybean production outlook for 2024/25 shows a modest decline to 4.4 billion bushels, affecting ending stocks which are projected to decrease by 20 million bushels from the previous forecast. Despite this, the U.S. season-average price for soybeans is expected to decrease slightly to $11.10 per bushel.

These developments underscore a dynamic period in the global agricultural landscape, marked by significant shifts in production, export, and consumption patterns across major players in the soybean market. As these trends continue to unfold, they will undoubtedly influence strategic decisions within the agricultural sector worldwide.


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USDA took Trumps comments that China would buy more U.S. soybeans seriously and headline news that the U.S./China trade truce would be extended when Trump/Xi meet in the first week of April was a BIG WIN for soybeans this week! 2026 “Mini” U.S. ethanol boom thanks to 45Z + China’s ban of phosphates from Feb. – August of 2026 will not help lower fertilizer prices anytime soon! 30 mmt of Chinese corn harvest is of poor quality and maybe a technical breakout in wheat futures.

*Apologies! Where we talk about the latest CFTC update as of 10th Feb 2026, managed money funds covered their net short position in canola to the tune of +42,746 week-on-week to flip to net long 145 contracts and not (as we mistakenly said) +90,009 wk/wk to 47,408.