US soybean production and ending stocks for 2024-25 were lowered just slightly as the USDA did just minor tinkering with its 2024-25 supply-demand estimates.
Thursday’s monthly supply-demand estimates from the USDA trimmed the 2024-25 US soybean ending stocks estimate by 10 million bu from August to 550 million bu, still well up from 340 million a year earlier.
The reduction was due to a 5-million bu reduction in the beginning stocks estimate, which fell to 340 million in response to a slight increase in the 2023-24 crush. The USDA also lowered its 2024 soy production estimate by 3 million bu to 4.586 billion bu, even as it left its average yield and harvested area estimates unchanged from last month at 53.2 bu/acre and 86.3 million acres, respectively. Meanwhile, expected residual use was bumped 2 million bu higher from last month to 38 million bu.
Going into today’s report, most traders and analysts were expecting a small increase in the average yield and production estimates from last month, with ending stocks anticipated to climb to 568 million bu. Soybean futures were trading about 5-6 cents/bu higher this afternoon, after the report’s release.
The expected 2024-25 season average soybean price was steady from last month at $10.80/bu, down from $12.50 in 2023-24. The soybean meal and soybean oil prices were also unchanged at $320/short ton and 42 cents/lb, respectively.
The USDA left its 2023-24 Brazil soybean production estimate unchanged from August at 153 million tonnes, but lowered its Argentina estimate by 900,000 tonnes to 48.1 million. The Paraguay crop was revised higher, up 500,000 tonnes to 11 million.
World soybean ending stocks for 2024-25 are estimated at 134.58 million tonnes this month, little changed from 134.3 million in August but up sharply from 112.25 million in 2023-24. The average pre-report trade guess put world stocks at 134 million tonnes.
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