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Soybean Strength Lifts Canola

Canola traders returned from the Christmas holiday in a buying mood, with futures solidly higher on Tuesday.
 
Chicago soybeans provided spillover support to canola, with the US market up sharply amid the continued port strike in Argentina, which has slowed export movement of agricultural goods out of the country. Persistent dryness for the soybean crops in Argentina and Brazil added to the upside.
 
Tightening domestic supplies also continued to underpin canola, with Agriculture Canada this month forecasting 2020-21 ending stocks at just 1.2 million tonnes, down from the November estimate of 2.25 million and more than 61% below the previous year. If accurate, 2020-21 Canadian canola ending stocks would be the lowest since 588,000 tonnes in 2012-13 and represent a stocks-to-use ratio of just 6%.
 
January canola was up $8.60 at $623.80, March gained $8.90 to $617.40 and May was $5.40 higher at $603.90.
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U.S.-China Trade “Truce” + U.S. Fed Cuts Rates Again

Video: U.S.-China Trade “Truce” + U.S. Fed Cuts Rates Again


The market was hoping for a US-China trade deal, but we got a trade “truce” for now from the keenly awaited Trump-Xi meeting at the APEC Summit.
China commits to minimum purchase commitments of 12 MMT of U.S. soybeans during the “current season” and a minimum of 25 MMT annually through 2028.
U.S. Treasury Sec Bessent said other Asian countries have agreed to buy additional 19 MMT of US soybean.
Soybean futures trading above $11 now- they normally tend to rally to $12.
As expected, US Fed cuts interest rates by -0.25% again in October to 3.75%–4.00%. No further cuts promised for this year but trade looking out to the Dec FOMC.
The Bank of Canada cut interest rates to 2.25% but raised concern over trade war damage.
Soy meal futures, remarkably, have had 14 consecutive higher close sessions. A bull market in soybeans is a bull market in soy meal!
Cattle futures lower as funds unwind out of cattle for now due to Trump headlines and objective to lower beef prices.
All major stock indices climb to new record highs. It was Mag 7 reporting week, which had mixed results. But we now have the first $5 trillion company in Nvidia!