Spring Wheat Futures at Highest Since 2011

Oct 28, 2021

Spring wheat futures posted more strong gains on Thursday, helping to lift the market to its highest in a about a decade.

As can be seen on the chart below, the market has climbed to its highest since June 2011 when it reached $11.20/bu. However, the market remains well off its all-time high of $25 achieved in February 2008. Much of the current strength is coming from tight global supplies of high protein, milling quality wheat following drought-reduced crops in the Canadian Prairies and the US northern Plains this year, along with smaller Russian crop, also due to overly dry weather.

In its October supply-demand update, the USDA estimated 2021-22 global wheat ending stocks at 277.2 million tonnes, down 6 million from the previous month’s estimate and the lowest since 2016-17. Canadian wheat (excl durum) ending stocks for 2021-22 are projected by Agriculture Canada to fall to just 3 million tonnes, down almost 2 million or 39% from a year earlier, while total US wheat stocks are pegged by the USDA at 23 million tonnes, a year-over-year drop of almost 5 million or 18%.

In terms of the world’s major exporters (Argentina, Australia, Canada, the EU, Kazakhstan, Russia, Ukraine and the US), combined 2021-22 ending stocks are estimated by the USDA at 50 million tonnes, versus approximately 60 million a year earlier and down roughly 33% from 2016-17. (Ending stocks held by exporters are typically considered a relevant metric for measuring supplies that are available to the world market.)

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Video: Evolution of Beef Cattle Farming

The Clear Conversations podcast took to the road for a special episode recorded in Nashville during CattleCon, bringing listeners straight into the heart of the cattle industry. Host Tracy Sellers welcomed rancher Steve Wooten of Beatty Canyon Ranch in Colorado for a wide-ranging discussion that blended family history and sustainability, particularly as it relates to the future of beef production.

Sustainability emerged as a central theme of the conversation, a word that Wooten acknowledges can mean very different things depending on who you ask. For him, sustainability starts with the soil. Healthy soil produces healthy grass, which supports efficient cattle capable of producing year after year with minimal external inputs. It’s an approach that equally considers vegetation, animal efficiency, and long-term profitability.

That philosophy aligned naturally with Wooten’s involvement in the U.S. Roundtable for Sustainable Beef, where he served as a representative for the Colorado Cattlemen’s Association. The roundtable brings together the entire beef supply chain—from producers to retailers—along with universities, NGOs, and allied industries. Its goal is not regulation, Wooten emphasized, but collaboration, shared learning, and continuous improvement.