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Statistics Canada releases newest field crop estimates

In 2023, Canadian farmers are projected to produce more corn for grain and soybeans, but less wheat, canola, barley, and oats, compared with 2022, according to recent yield model estimates using satellite imagery and agroclimatic data. Decreased production for most crops was driven by lower yields related to dry conditions in Western Canada.

Statistics Canada, in collaboration with Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, has relied upon proven satellite technology to model preliminary crop yields and production since 2016. These methods have successfully been used for the past eight years to produce August yield estimates, and they replaced July yield estimates beginning in 2020. The September 2023 publication of the Field Crop Reporting Series is a joint release between Statistics Canada and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada.

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???? Wheat surges on drought: Prices jumped to multi-week highs as worsening dryness grips the Plains, with 70% of winter wheat in drought. Corn edged higher, while soybeans slipped.

??????? Mixed weather pattern: Rain improved parts of the Corn Belt, but drought worsened elsewhere—especially the High Plains and Kentucky. Nebraska conditions sharply deteriorated, with 56% in extreme drought.

????? Oil spikes on tensions: Crude climbed over 3% near $96 as Iran keeps the Strait of Hormuz restricted, while fragile ceasefires keep geopolitical risk elevated. ???? Pulses gain favor: Farmers are shifting to peas and lentils as a rare profit opportunity, driven by strong protein demand and lower input costs.

???? Exports mixed but solid: Corn sales dipped week-over-week but remain strong overall; soybean and wheat sales showed mixed trends, with steady global demand.