Strong demand boosting crop income

Jun 02, 2021

Crop demand has been strong and crop movement has been excellent for the 2020-2021 crop year.

‘Weekly updates from the Canadian Grain Commission (CGC) provide useful crop market demand information,’ says Neil Blue, provincial crop market analyst with Alberta Agriculture and Forestry.

The Canadian Grain Commission numbers include only movement of bulk crops through facilities licensed by the CGC, so exclude container movement of crops as well as overland crop movements to the U.S.

‘Numbers from the CGC on Canadian crop movement from August 1, 2020 to mid-May, 2021 compared to the last crop year show an improvement in producer crop deliveries relative to last year. Contributing factors to increased crop movement were timely completion of the 2020 harvest and robust demand.’

Crop year to date, non-durum wheat deliveries are up by 641,000 tonnes, or 4%. Canadian durum deliveries are up by over one million tonnes, or 25%. Oat deliveries are up by 242,000 tonnes, or 11%, and barley deliveries are up by 1.1 million tonnes, or 34%. Producer deliveries of canola are up by 1.49 million tonnes, or 9%. Pea and lentil deliveries are also higher than year ago numbers.

Image 1. Comparative producer deliveries to May 16, 2021

Comparative producer deliveries to May 16, 2021

Exports of Canadian crops are equal to or higher than year ago for all crops. Canadian non-durum wheat exports are 3 million tonnes higher than year ago to date while durum exports are almost one million tonnes higher. Oat exports are running 10% higher while barley exports are almost double last year’s pace.

Canola exports to mid-May are up by 1.1 million tonnes, or 45%. Although not a large crop in Alberta, Canadian soybean exports are up by 45%. Pea and lentil bulk exports are similar or higher than the year ago pace.

Image 2. Comparative crop market exports to May 16, 2021

Comparative crop market exports to May 16, 2021

Domestic use of wheat, durum and oats are all higher than year ago. Although domestic use of barley appears to be lower from the CGC data, direct barley sales to feedlots are not included, and feeding demand has been strong. Canola crushing volume so far is higher than last year’s record pace.

‘The implications of these numbers are that crop demand has been strong and movement has been excellent,’ says Blue. ‘This demand-driven market has provided a boost to crop income during this crop year. Continuation of the strong prices depends on the outcome of this year’s crops and demand factors as the world deals with the challenges of COVID-19.’

Source : alberta

Video: The 15-Year Bet Behind Every New Variety!

Canada is trying to decide how much agricultural research capacity it can afford to lose. Brian Rossnagel believes the better question is whether the country can afford to rebuild it.

The longtime barley and oat breeder makes the case with a simple fact about his profession: the consequences of today’s decisions may not become visible for 10 or 15 years.

“Pick the right parents. That’s the biggest thing,” Rossnagel says. “If you pick the wrong parents, you’re not going to get anywhere—and you don’t know that until 10 years, 15 years later.”

That warning carries particular weight as Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada moves to reduce spending and streamline parts of its science operations. The department’s 2026–27 plan anticipates the loss of approximately 665 positions by 2028–29 and says some research will be reduced where capacity exists in academia or industry. AAFC says the changes will make its science operations more cost-effective over the long term.

For Canada’s seed industry, Rossnagel’s career illustrates what is at stake.

This fall, the retired University of Saskatchewan breeder will be inducted into the Canadian Agricultural Hall of Fame. During his 35-year career at the Crop Development Centre, he helped develop more than 100 barley and oat varieties, including CDC Austenson—one of Western Canada’s most widely grown feed barleys. His induction recognizes not only those varieties, but the collaboration and research system that made them possible.

Rossnagel is quick to emphasize that none of it was the work of one person.

“The first thing I thought about was all the other people who contributed to whatever success I and my program had over the years,” he says. “We know that it’s not an individual who does this. It’s a group—a team.”

That team extends well beyond the breeder whose name appears beside a variety. It includes technicians, pathologists, quality specialists, statisticians, regional testing sites, seed growers and industry partners. It also includes the breeders who came before and those who will carry the germplasm forward.

CDC Fraser barley, for example, moved through three breeding careers. Its parents came from Brian Harvey’s program. Rossnagel advanced the material after Harvey retired, and Aaron Beattie later guided it through registration and release.

That kind of handoff is normal in plant breeding. The person who makes the original cross may never see the resulting variety reach farmers.

It also explains why lost research capacity cannot simply be switched back on when budgets improve.

“If you shut it off, it’s very, very difficult—and particularly costly—to start it up again,” Rossnagel says. “If you have to start from scratch, it’s going to be at least 10 years before anybody notices whether you’re getting anything done or not.”

The concern is not simply how many experimental lines Canada can process. Modern equipment, statistical tools and genetic technologies allow today’s breeding programs to evaluate tens of thousands of lines—far more than Rossnagel could handle when he entered the field in the early 1970s.

But efficiency and automation do not generate every idea.

“If you pare back down, and instead of having six or seven individual scientists concentrating on wheat breeding, you go down and say three people could handle all this, well, that’s half the ideas gone,” he says. “Particularly if you happen to lose the three people who had the really neat and innovative ideas, boy, that’s a problem.”

It is a timely distinction for Canadian agriculture. Consolidating programs may preserve the volume of material moving through a system, at least initially. It may not preserve the diversity of thinking, regional knowledge or willingness to pursue unconventional crosses.

That regional knowledge matters because Canadian agriculture is not one uniform production environment. A variety suited to southern Alberta may face different disease, moisture and maturity pressures than one grown in Manitoba, Ontario or Atlantic Canada.

“Agriculture is applied biology,” Rossnagel says. “Biology, all around the Earth, moves from the poles to the equator. It does not move from Newfoundland to B.C. like politics do.”