Study Models Future Effects of Climate Change on US Corn and Soybean Yields, Production, and Exports

Mar 28, 2024

A recent study conducted by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Economic Research Service (ERS) modeled how climate-linked changes in temperatures and precipitation might affect future U.S. corn and soybean yields and what that would mean for markets and trade through the middle of the next decade.

The study used 2016 as a base year, and the model estimated an increase in U.S. corn yields but a decrease in soybean yields by the year 2036. These changes would affect U.S. corn and soybean exports. In the model, corn exports are projected to increase 0.36% by 2036, compared with 2016, while soybean exports drop 1.17% for a total decrease for the two crops of as much as US$256 million by 2036.

The U.S. corn yields were estimated to increase 3.1% by 2036, representing historically slow yield growth compared with previous decades. In contrast, soybean yields were projected to decrease by 3%. With these yield changes, the use of land in corn and soybean production also was expected to shift. U.S. corn producers are expected to plant fewer acres of corn because of increased yields while soybean producers are projected to increase acreage to offset the impact of the expected yield decrease.

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Video: Evolution of Beef Cattle Farming

The Clear Conversations podcast took to the road for a special episode recorded in Nashville during CattleCon, bringing listeners straight into the heart of the cattle industry. Host Tracy Sellers welcomed rancher Steve Wooten of Beatty Canyon Ranch in Colorado for a wide-ranging discussion that blended family history and sustainability, particularly as it relates to the future of beef production.

Sustainability emerged as a central theme of the conversation, a word that Wooten acknowledges can mean very different things depending on who you ask. For him, sustainability starts with the soil. Healthy soil produces healthy grass, which supports efficient cattle capable of producing year after year with minimal external inputs. It’s an approach that equally considers vegetation, animal efficiency, and long-term profitability.

That philosophy aligned naturally with Wooten’s involvement in the U.S. Roundtable for Sustainable Beef, where he served as a representative for the Colorado Cattlemen’s Association. The roundtable brings together the entire beef supply chain—from producers to retailers—along with universities, NGOs, and allied industries. Its goal is not regulation, Wooten emphasized, but collaboration, shared learning, and continuous improvement.