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The Impact of the U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard on Food and Feed Prices

By Jane O’Malley and Stephanie Searle

This briefing paper reviews evidence of the impacts of the U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) on food prices, with a focus on corn and soy, and presents new analysis on the impact of the RFS on U.S. livestock farmers.

Studies examining the relationship between food prices and biofuel demand conclude that U.S. corn prices have increased relative to a “no-RFS” scenario, although there is a wide range in the estimated size of the price impact. Using the Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) projections for ethanol consumption, this analysis estimates that the RFS has led to a 12% increase in the price of corn and that corn farmers received an increase of $5.9 billion in revenue in 2019. The increased demand for soy oil in biofuel production as a result of the RFS can be expected to significantly impact soy oil prices and palm oil imports but not soybeans or soymeal supply and prices.

Feed makes up an estimated 50% to 69% of production costs for livestock farmers. This analysis estimates that livestock farmers lost an estimated $3 billion in revenue in 2019 relative to a counterfactual, “no-RFS” scenario. On average, beef and poultry farmers have the greatest absolute reduction in annual revenue while swine and poultry farmers lose the largest share of annual revenue on a percentage basis.

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From Students to Solutions | On The Brink: Season 2, Episode 14

Video: From Students to Solutions | On The Brink: Season 2, Episode 14

Ask Canada’s most decorated soybean breeder his favourite part of the job and he doesn’t name a single variety. He names the students.

Istvan Rajcan is a professor of soybean breeding and genetics in the Department of Plant Agriculture at the University of Guelph, where he has run the soybean breeding program for 28 and a half years. In that time he has developed 87 soybean cultivars, published 140 refereed papers and trained 51 graduate students. In 2025 he received the Public Sector Impact Award from the National Association for Plant Breeding.

He is also worried. In this episode he says Canada is at a crossroads, pointing to recent government cuts to plant breeding programs and to the facilities that support them. His prescription is structural. "Plant breeding funding formula has to be a long-term one," he says.

The formula he is defending is the public-private matching arrangement his program runs on. Private seed companies fund the work, provincial or federal money matches it, and the combined pool stretches each dollar further than either source could alone. At the National Association for Plant Breeding annual meeting in June, he says American public breeders were often surprised at how well that collaboration works in Canada.

He also describes how the people entering plant breeding have changed. His early graduate students came mostly from farms. More recently they include, in his words, "city kids who just became excited about genetics."

Topics covered:

Why public-private plant breeding funding in Canada needs a long-term

commitment rather than a larger one

How matching private seed company investment with provincial and federal

dollars multiplies research capacity

How the graduate student pipeline into plant breeding has shifted from

farm kids to city kids