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U.S. Personal Income Higher

U.S. personal income continues to move higher despite the ongoing economic disruptions and unemployment caused by COVID-19. Real disposable personal income (inflation adjusted) was up 11.4 percent in January compared to December (Figure 2). Personal income consists of total earnings due to wages, investments, and other ventures. Spikes in personal income are evident in March of last year and January of this year due to the stimulus payments provided in the COVID-19 assistance packages.

Taxpayers received $1,200 per person in the first relief package, and $600 per person in the second one. For persons who did not lose a job, the vast majority, the assistance simply boosted income. It appears most people deposited the increased income into savings. The Economist reports that excess savings reached $1.6 trillion last month.

Figure 2. Total. U.S. Real Personal Income

Total. U.S. Real Personal Income

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Iran War = “Trend is Your Friend” Short-Term BUT……

Video: Iran War = “Trend is Your Friend” Short-Term BUT……


Historically wars like the 2026 Iran war are bullish hard assets like grains, metals and energy! The funds are spooked and do not want to be short, but do they price in the news over time, similar to the Ukraine/Russian war that started on Feb. 24, 2022? A closure of the Strait of Hormuz is the key to the surge in crude oil, natural gas prices and fertilizer prices.  Grains are breaking out to new contract highs as a hedge against inflation.