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U.S. Soybean Crushings Slip in November

The National Oilseed Processor Association (NOPA) issued November soybean crush and stocks data on Monday, December 16. According to the data, NOPA member soybean processing in the second month of the 2019/20 product (October-September) marketing year totaled 4.488 million tonnes. This was off 0.285 million tonnes from October and compares to last November’s crushings of 4.544 million tonnes.
 
 
According to analysts’ expectations published by Reuters, the trade was looking for crush to come in near 4.681 million tonnes with the lowest published guess slightly above the actual crushings at 4.589 million tonnes. Again, this month, there was a wide range of guessing from polled analysts, with some respondents suggesting that crush could come in as high as 4.845 million tonnes. It is not uncommon for crushings to slip from October to November, given the lower number of calendar days, but there were some ideas in the marketplace that crushings would rise as harvest advanced and brought new-crop soybeans into crushers’ supply chains. Instead, some analysts believed that low farm prices and depressed margins were factors that limited crushings for the month.
 
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Agricultural Market Update: Grain Prices, Crop Conditions, and Weather Impacts

Welcome back to our channel where we provide comprehensive updates on the latest trends and changes in the agricultural sector. This week, we're looking at significant movements in grain prices, crop conditions, and the effects of weather patterns. Let's dive into the details:

Grain Price Decline Grain prices have fallen to their lowest levels since 2020, with December corn down 4.3% and November soybeans losing 3.1%. This decline is partly due to the beneficial moisture brought by Hurricane Beryl to the Midwest, which has improved crop conditions significantly. The USDA reported that corn and soybean crops are in their best condition in four years, contributing to the downward pressure on prices.

Record Short Positions and Market Sentiment Fund traders have increased their net short positions in the corn market to a record level, with a net short of 347,000 contracts of corn. This reflects a bearish sentiment in the market, further influencing grain price dynamics. Similar selling trends were observed in soybeans and SRW wheat, indicating broad market caution.

Weather Impact and Forecast Hurricane Beryl has brought significant rainfall across Arkansas, Missouri, western Tennessee, western Kentucky, and southern Illinois, with more expected over Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana in the coming days. Despite this, the market is currently more focused on the moisture benefits rather than potential heat risks forecasted in the 6-10 and 8-14 day periods.

US Crop Conditions Corn and soybean conditions have shown slight improvements last week, with corn rated 68% good to excellent and soybeans at 68%. These are among the best ratings for this time of year since 2020, suggesting robust crop health that could continue to influence grain prices.

Winter Wheat Harvest and Spring Wheat Conditions The US winter wheat harvest is progressing well, ahead of schedule with significant portions already harvested in Kansas and Texas. Spring wheat conditions are also favorable, with 75% rated good to excellent, although there have been some declines in states like Idaho, South Dakota, and Washington. Brazil's Corn Harvest and US Exports Brazil's second corn crop harvest is advancing rapidly due to favorable hot and dry conditions, with 63% of the crop already harvested. Meanwhile, US corn shipments saw a substantial increase last week, indicating strong export demand, which contrasts with the recent drop in domestic grain prices.

Ongoing Developments Lastly, the USDA reported a flash sale of corn, with significant quantities sold to unknown destinations, scheduled for delivery over the next two marketing years. This could signal ongoing international demand for US corn despite lower prices.

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