Upcoming Cold Temperatures and Winter Wheat

Feb 02, 2021

By Laura Lindsey and Ed Lentz et.al

The upcoming forecast of cold temperatures has sparked some concern about damage to the winter wheat crop.

Fortunately, winter wheat is very resistant to cold temperatures during the months of December, January, and February when the plant is dormant. During these months, winter wheat can withstand below freezing temperatures, especially when there is snow cover. In early 2019, Ohio experienced polar vortex temperatures without snow cover. However, no (or minimal) damage was observed in winter wheat (Figure 1).

Figure 1. Polar vortex temperatures with no snow cover in early 2019 resulted in survival of winter wheat.

Besides wheat’s natural ability to be resistant to cold temperatures, plant breeders have developed wheat varieties that are adapted to Ohio’s environments. Occasionally some companies have tried to push North varieties adapted to the Mid-Atlantic region that may be affected by extreme cold. However, most often wheat that has not survived cold temperatures was planted too late for adequate growth, planted too shallow to protect the crown, or too much water on low spots before the cold temperatures.

Source : osu.edu

Video: Spring 2026 weather outlook for Wisconsin; What an early-arriving El Niño could mean

Northeast Wisconsin is a small corner of the world, but our weather is still affected by what happens across the globe.

That includes in the equatorial Pacific, where changes between El Niño and La Niña play a role in the weather here -- and boy, have there been some abrupt changes as of late.

El Niño and La Niña are the two phases of what is collectively known as the El Niño Southern Oscillation, or ENSO for short. These are the swings back and forth from unusually warm to unusually cold sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean along the equator.

Since this past September, we have been in a weak La Niña, which means water temperatures near the Eastern Pacific equator have been cooler than usual. That's where we're at right now.

Even last fall, the long-term outlook suggested a return to neutral conditions by spring and potentially El Niño conditions by summer.

But there are some signs this may be happening faster than usual, which could accelerate the onset of El Niño.

Over the last few weeks, unusually strong bursts of westerly winds farther west in the Pacific -- where sea surface temperatures are warmer than average -- have been observed. There is a chance that this could accelerate the warming of those eastern Pacific waters and potentially push us into El Niño sooner than usual.

If we do enter El Nino by spring -- which we'll define as the period of March, April and May -- there are some long-term correlations with our weather here in Northeast Wisconsin.

Looking at a map of anomalously warm weather, most of the upper Great Lakes doesn't show a strong correlation, but in general, the northern tiers of the United States do tend to lean to that direction.

The stronger correlation is with precipitation. El Niño conditions in spring have historically come with a higher risk of very dry weather over that time frame, so this will definitely be a transition we'll have to watch closely as we move out of winter.