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US Corn and Soybean Harvest Hits the Home Stretch for 2018 as Winter Wheat Planting Wraps Up

 
The United States Department of Agriculture released its latest Crop Progress Report on Monday, November 19, 2018. According to the report, both the US corn and soybean harvests have arrived at the homestretch for this year, while cotton and sorghum harvest continued to make moderate progress this week.
 
With just 10 percent left to go before closing the books on this year’s crop, the US corn harvest is as of this week 90 percent complete. That is still slightly behind the average pace of the US corn harvest historically, which is generally at 93 percent complete at this time of year. However, this week’s report places the 2018 harvest just ahead of last year’s progress of 89 percent by one percentage point. This week, three states have reported finishing their corn harvest including Illinois, North Carolina and Tennessee - all at 100 percent complete.
 
The US soybean harvest continues to trail its normal progress this year as well, at 91 percent complete this week, according to the report. That puts the US soybean harvest approximately 5 points behind normal and last year’s pace of 96 percent. Although several are very close, no states have yet to report being totally complete with their soybean harvest for the year.
 
Meanwhile, cotton harvest continues in the southern region, reported this week at 59 percent complete which is 10 points behind the five-year average for this time and 14 points behind last year’s pace of 73 percent.
 
Sorghum harvest is further along than cotton at this juncture, reported at 80 percent complete this week. Like cotton, it is 10 percent behind its average pace, but only 9 points behind last year’s pace of harvest.
 
To view the complete USDA Crop Progress Report released on Monday, November 19, 2018, click here.
 
Across our three-state region here in the Southern Plains -
 
Winter wheat planted in Oklahoma reached 92 percent, down 4 points from the previous year. Winter wheat emerged reached 81 percent, down 8 points from the previous year and down 12 points from normal. Winter wheat’s condition in Oklahoma this week rates, 16 percent poor to very poor, 32 fair and 52 percent good to excellent. Canola planted reached 90 percent. Canola emerged reached 71 percent, down 29 points from the previous year. Corn harvested reached 99 percent. Sorghum harvested reached 82 percent, down 1 point from the previous year and down 6 points from normal. Soybeans dropping leaves reached 95 percent, unchanged from the previous year. Soybeans harvested reached 68 percent, down 10 points from the previous year. Cotton harvested reached 51 percent, down 7 points from the previous year and down 7 points from normal. Pasture and range condition was rated at 16 percent poor to very poor, 40 fair and 44 percent good to excellent.
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Will the 2025 USDA December Crop Report Be a Market Mover/Surprise?

Video: Will the 2025 USDA December Crop Report Be a Market Mover/Surprise?


Historically, the USDA December crop report is a non-event or another dud report as the USDA reserves any final supply changes to the final report in January of the following year in this case 2026. But after the longest U.S. government shutdown in history at 43 days and no October crop report will they provide more data/surprise and make an exception?
Our China U.S. soybean purchase tracker is now at 26.6% or a total of 3.2 mmt but for traders it’s taking too long to unfold.
The final Stats Canada production report was bearish canola and wheat projection a record crop in both (it adds to the global glut of supplies) and bullish local corn and soybean prices in Ontario/Quebec thanks to a drought. It will not help the fund flow short-term, the USDA may need to offset it?
A U.S. Fed interest rate cut of another 25-basis point next Wednesday (probability 87.1%) could help fund flow and sentiment in stock and ag commodities into year end.
More inflows into Bitcoin this past week saw prices rebound back above 90,000 with support at 82,000 and resistance at 96,000.
A V-shaped bottom in cattle suggest the lows are in after Mexico reported another new world screwworm case. Lower weights, seasonal demand and higher U.S. beef select/choice values with a continued closure of the Mexican border to cattle will result in a resumption of higher cattle futures into yearend.
Australia is expected to produce its 3rd largest wheat crop ever at 36 mmt adding to the global glut of supplies.
Reports of ASF in hogs in Spain the largest pork exporter in Europe could see the U.S. win more pork export business long-term.
If the rains verify into next week of 3-5 inches for Brazil it would go a long way to fixing the dry regions from the last 2-months, but the European weather model has been wrong for the past 2-months!
Natural gas futures are surging to the 3rd price count as frigid hold temps set in.
CDN $ is also surging to end the week on a very resilient economy and better employment numbers suggesting no interest rate cuts next week.
Finally, the CFTC report showed funds were net buyers of soybeans but sellers of corn, canola and wheat. In real time the funds have gone back to selling as they take some profits.