US hog industry struggles

May 15, 2023

The US industry continues to struggle. Hog prices below cost of production is putting a major financial stress on much of the Pork sector. There will be significantly fewer pigs year over year by the end of 2023 and even fewer in 2024.

Our Observations

Major sow liquidation is underway which will decrease the U.S. sow herd by 4% – 200,000 – 250,000 sows in our opinion. A reflection of the economic conditions but also the ongoing health issue problems that over and over lead to decreased production and spikes in cost of production.
There is a challenge to get sows marketed currently a combination of large numbers and pork market conditions with sow mortality industrywide of 14 -15% slowed gilt placement due to market in itself will cut the sow herd.
We have seen many hog price debacles in the time we have been in business. The scenario today seems somewhat different. Why?
In other price collapses we dealt usually with spiked hog production. Year to date the U.S. has produced 1% more Pork than a year ago. With Beef production down 4.9% year to date total Red Meat production is down 2.0%. Certainly not significantly more Pork and a lot less Beef.

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Meet the guest: Dr. Ellen Goddard / ellen-goddard-11541138 is Professor Emerita at the University of Alberta and an agricultural economist. Her work focuses on consumer behavior, trust, livestock sectors, and public attitudes toward food technologies. She also specializes in economic modeling for pork, beef, and dairy systems. Learn more from Dr. Ellen Goddard on the Swine in Canada Podcast Show, available on all major platforms.