US soybean ending stocks for 2024-25 are down sharply from last month, following a much bigger-than-expected cut to this year’s average yield projection.
The USDA cut its national soy yield estimate to 51.7 bu/acre in updated monthly supply-demand estimates released Friday. That is down 1.4 bu from the October estimate and below the average pre-report trade guess of 52.8 bu, although still above last year’s average of 50.6 bu/acre.
With planted and harvested area unchanged from October at 87.1 million and 86.3 million acres, the yield cut dropped the production estimate to 4.461 billion, a decline of 121 million bu from last month but still 7% higher on the year. The USDA offset at least some of the impact of the smaller crop by lowering its 2024-25 export and crush estimates from October, but ending stocks nonetheless were cut by 80 million bu to fall to 470 million, well below the average trade guess of 532 million but still above 2023-24 ending stocks of 342 million.
The export forecast was lowered 25 million bu from last month to 1.825 billion, reflecting lower supplies and sales to date, the USDA said. The reduction in the crush forecast, down 15 million bu from October to 2.41 billion, was attributed to lower soybean meal domestic disappearance and exports.
Soybean futures were trading just modestly higher following the noon hour ET release of the report, up 3-4 cents/bu.
The average Iowa soybean yield was lowered 3 bu/acre from last month to 61 bu, while Illinois was dropped 2 bu to 65 bu. The average Minnesota yield also fell 2 bu from October, down to 46 bu. The average Ohio soy yield was steady at 52 bu/acre, but Michigan was down 1 bu at 51 bu.
Global 2024-25 soybean production is lowered 3.5 million tonnes this month to 425.4 million, mainly on lower production for the United States and India. However, that remains up sharply from 394.73 million a year earlier. With planting still underway, Brazil and Argentina soy production was left steady from last month at 169 million and 51 million tonnes, respectively. China’s imports, at 109 million tonnes, were also unchanged from October but down from 112 million in 2023-24.
World soybean ending stocks are pegged at 131.74 million tonnes this month, down from 134.65 million in October but up from 112.42 million a year earlier.
The US season-average soybean price for 2024-25 is forecast unchanged this month at $10.80/bu. The soybean meal price is also unchanged at $320/short ton. The soybean oil price is up 1 cent from October to 43 cents/lb.
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