US swine inventory expected to further decline - USDA ERS

May 20, 2024

It is generally acknowledged that 2023 was a difficult year for US hog producers, according to the most recent USDA Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook report. Iowa State University calculates that monthly producer losses last year averaged more than $24 per head.

The December 2023 Quarterly Hogs and Pigs showed a year-over-year reduction in the December 1 breeding inventory of more than 3%. Sow slaughter data issued weekly by USDA suggests that reductions in the US breeding inventory are likely continuing.

For weeks 1–7 of 2024, USDA data show that sow and boar slaughter increased about 5.8% over the same period last year. A continuation of the trend established in the first 7 weeks of 2024 would further downsize the inventory of breeding animals. Fewer breeding animals usually means fewer farrowings, which are typically associated with smaller pig crops, depending on litter rates. In general, smaller pig crops usually result in higher hog prices.

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Video: Season 7, Episode 1: Managing Risk and Seeing Opportunities in U.S. Pork Production

Today’s episode features three guests discussing the similarities and differences between pork production in the United States and Brazil, along with strategies for managing risk in today’s industry while recognizing and acting on opportunities. First, Dr. Anne Caroline de Lara, executive manager of live pig production at Seara Alimentos, a JBS company in Brazil, is joined by Dr. Matthew Turner, head of operations for JBS Live Pork. Together, they discuss how labor, climate and ventilation challenges vary between Brazil and the United States, while underscoring their shared commitment to raising healthy pigs. They also point to lessons producers in both countries can take from one another’s systems and on-farm experiences. Then, Brady Reicks, risk manager at Reicks View Farms, shares his perspective on risk management, drawing from his background in markets and his transition into farming. He discusses how protecting margins varies by operation and offers practical approaches producers can use to make marketing and business decisions with greater confidence rather than hesitation.

Both conversations were recorded at recent industry events focused on swine livability, including the International Conference on Pig Livability and Iowa Swine Day.