USDA 2025/26 U.S. Supply/Demand Estimates 'Net Neutral' for U.S. Farmers & Ag OEMs

USDA introduced its U.S. supply and demand estimates for 2025/26 crops on Feb. 27 during its annual Outlook Forum in Virginia. 

Based on these initial estimates, J.P. Morgan's model suggests U.S. major crop cash receipts will total $119.7 billion in 2024/25, which is "flattish" year-over-year, said Tami Zakaria in a note to investors.

Overall, the report shows increases in ending stocks of U.S. wheat and corn and decreases in U.S. soybeans, which Zakaria says "is net neutral for U.S. farmers and for agriculture OEMs. Moreover, stocks-to-use (STU) ratios are seen expanding further for wheat/corn and compressing for soybeans in the U.S."

Higher diesel and fertilizer prices are squeezing farm profit margins ahead of the midterm elections. Farmers in Iowa and Kansas discuss rising harvest costs, the war in Iran and whether those pressures will change their votes. Peter Tubbs reports on the debate over farm input costs and the differing political responses across the Corn Belt.