The September corn yield forecast by USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service is 1.3 bushels per acre lower than the August forecast, reducing production prospects for 2015/16. Increased 2014/15 domestic use and exports also reduces expected 2015/16 beginning stocks. Projected 2015/16 corn supplies are down 141 million bushels this month, but use is trimmed 20 million bushels, leaving ending stocks down 121 million bushels to 1,592 million. The tighter stocks prospects support an increase in the projected season-average price received by producers, up 10 cents per bushel to a midpoint of $3.75 per bushel. Sorghum and barley price prospects are also increased this month.
World 2015/16 coarse grain production and ending stocks are lower this month, mostly reflecting U.S. corn reductions. Foreign corn production is down 4.9 million tons, almost double the U.S. decline, mostly due to summer heat and dryness in the EU. However, bumper barley crops offset the foreign corn production decline, leaving foreign coarse grain projected ending stocks up fractionally this month.
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Source: USDA