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USDA Releases October WASDE

The USDA released its October WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates) report Tuesday morning.

Jon Driedger is Vice-President of LeftField Commodity Research.

"USDA increased production in particular for corn and especially for soybeans and then also included some larger stocks from the September 30th report and so within that, basically increased supply of those crops and in particular the soybeans, is what they showed today...More soybeans out there than the market was anticipating and then also a little bit so for corn as well."

He notes the USDA reduced the U.S. wheat carry-out projections for this coming year, in line with expectations. Driedger adds we continue to see both U.S. and global wheat stocks tighten on these reports.

Driedger says harvest in the U.S. is moving along at an average pace.

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USDA took Trumps comments that China would buy more U.S. soybeans seriously and headline news that the U.S./China trade truce would be extended when Trump/Xi meet in the first week of April was a BIG WIN for soybeans this week! 2026 “Mini” U.S. ethanol boom thanks to 45Z + China’s ban of phosphates from Feb. – August of 2026 will not help lower fertilizer prices anytime soon! 30 mmt of Chinese corn harvest is of poor quality and maybe a technical breakout in wheat futures.

*Apologies! Where we talk about the latest CFTC update as of 10th Feb 2026, managed money funds covered their net short position in canola to the tune of +42,746 week-on-week to flip to net long 145 contracts and not (as we mistakenly said) +90,009 wk/wk to 47,408.