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USDA Releases Uneventful December WASDE

The December USDA WASDE report released Thursday morning was quite uneventful.
 
Dan Basse is president of AgResource Company in Chicago.
 
"No real big changes," he said. "If there was a surprise, it was in soybeans where USDA did not increase the US export estimate. Instead, they chose to increase the crush rate by 15 million bushels to a record 2.2 billion bushels. The corn end stocks total was the same. They did make a modest adjustment in wheat, causing a five million bushel decline in U.S. wheat imports."
 
Basse commented on the global numbers.
 
"At the end of the day, when you look at the world balance sheet, the Canadian crop was raised slightly. The Australian crop was raised 1.5 million metric tons. Russia went up. World wheat stocks dropped four million metric tons due to increased export demand. As we come back from this report, it's all going to be about South American weather. The markets have sold off just slightly on the news but it's not something that we believe will be sustained unless those South American crops get a drink of rain and improving conditions as we look forward to 2021."
 
Basse says Tom Vilsack is a name being mentioned to take over as the next U.S. Secretary of Agriculture.
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Iran War = “Trend is Your Friend” Short-Term BUT……

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Historically wars like the 2026 Iran war are bullish hard assets like grains, metals and energy! The funds are spooked and do not want to be short, but do they price in the news over time, similar to the Ukraine/Russian war that started on Feb. 24, 2022? A closure of the Strait of Hormuz is the key to the surge in crude oil, natural gas prices and fertilizer prices.  Grains are breaking out to new contract highs as a hedge against inflation.