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USGC 2022 Corn Harvest Quality Report: Higher Average Test Weight, Protein Content in This Year’s Harvest

According to the U.S. Grains Council’s (USGC’s) 2022/2023 Corn Harvest Quality Report, the 12th annual corn quality survey published globally today, the 2022 U.S. corn crop entering the market channel has a higher average test weight, higher protein concentration and lower total damage relative to each quality factor’s average of the previous five crops.

Cool temperatures early in the year caused delays in planting but May’s warm weather allowed farmers to catch up and the crop has since matured at a near-average pace. Areas of the western Corn Belt continued to endure higher heat and lower than expected precipitation.

These factors contributed to reduced yields in this year’s crop but accelerated maturation and the clear weather ensured a timely harvest, which has maintained crop quality.

The average aggregate quality of the representative samples tested was better than the grade factor requirements for U.S. No. 1 grade. The report also showed that 81.5 percent of the samples met the grade factor requirements for U.S. No. 1 grade and 95.3 percent met the grade factor requirements for U.S. No. 2.

“Through trade, the Council is committed to the furtherance of global food security and mutual economic benefit and offers this report to assist buyers in making well-informed decisions by providing reliable and timely information about the quality of the current U.S. crop,” said Kurt Shultz, USGC senior director of global strategies. “This year’s supply allows the United States to remain the world’s leading corn exporter and will account for an estimated 29.9 percent of global corn exports during the upcoming marketing year.”

Nearly all of the samples tested below the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) action level for aflatoxins and 86.1 percent of the samples tested below the 5.0 parts per million FDA advisory level for deoxynivalenol (DON) or vomitoxin. Of the samples tested for fumonisin, 98.9 percent tested below the FDA’s strictest guidance level of 5.0 parts per million, a slightly higher proportion than in 2021.

The 2022 U.S. corn crop checks in at 353.84 million metric tons (13,930 million bushels) and the average yield is 10.81 metric tons/hectare (172.3 bushels per acre), according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate.

 

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Wheat Yields in USA and China Threatened by Heat Waves Breaking Enzymes

Video: Wheat Yields in USA and China Threatened by Heat Waves Breaking Enzymes

A new peer reviewed study looks at the generally unrecognized risk of heat waves surpassing the threshold for enzyme damage in wheat.

Most studies that look at crop failure in the main food growing regions (breadbaskets of the planet) look at temperatures and droughts in the historical records to assess present day risk. Since the climate system has changed, these historical based risk analysis studies underestimate the present-day risks.

What this new research study does is generate an ensemble of plausible scenarios for the present climate in terms of temperatures and precipitation, and looks at how many of these plausible scenarios exceed the enzyme-breaking temperature of 32.8 C for wheat, and exceed the high stress yield reducing temperature of 27.8 C for wheat. Also, the study considers the possibility of a compounded failure with heat waves in both regions simultaneously, this greatly reducing global wheat supply and causing severe shortages.

Results show that the likelihood (risk) of wheat crop failure with a one-in-hundred likelihood in 1981 has in today’s climate become increased by 16x in the USA winter wheat crop (to one-in-six) and by 6x in northeast China (to one-in-sixteen).

The risks determined in this new paper are much greater than that obtained in previous work that determines risk by analyzing historical climate patterns.

Clearly, since the climate system is rapidly changing, we cannot assume stationarity and calculate risk probabilities like we did traditionally before.

We are essentially on a new planet, with a new climate regime, and have to understand that everything is different now.