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Vaccine Caused ASF Variant Believed Detectable

The Executive Director of the Swine Health Information Center says all indications are that existing PCR tests will be able to detect an African Swine Fever variant caused by the use of unapproved African Swine Fever vaccines in China. African Swine Fever continues to circulate in China and some of the new outbreaks have been linked to the use of vaccines derived from live virus with two genes deleted.
 
Dr. Paul Sundberg, the Executive Director of the Swine Health Information Center, explains, while these vaccines are keeping pigs alive in China, those pigs remain infectious and there are concerns with the ability to detect virus caused by the vaccine.
 
Clip-Dr. Paul Sundberg-Swine Health Information Center:
 
Especially when you have a gene deletion in a virus, you want to make sure that your PCRs that detect virus don't key on those genes that have been deleted because, if they do, then your PCR is not going to find it.
 
It may be a live virus that's able to be spread but your PCR's not going to be able to find it if it keys on that gene that has been deleted. So went to USDA and we asked them directly about these two gene deletion virus strains that are being used as vaccines. According to the information that they have and looking at what they use as PCRs, what the laboratories use, we should be able to still detect that two gene deletion variant of ASF should it get to North America.
 
So I think right now we're still at the same spot. That gene deletion virus is circulating, it sheds, it causes chronic infection and it sheds but we are able to detect it in North America I believe given the current information that we've got, so that's good news.
Source : Farmscape

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Will the 2025 USDA December Crop Report Be a Market Mover/Surprise?

Video: Will the 2025 USDA December Crop Report Be a Market Mover/Surprise?


Historically, the USDA December crop report is a non-event or another dud report as the USDA reserves any final supply changes to the final report in January of the following year in this case 2026. But after the longest U.S. government shutdown in history at 43 days and no October crop report will they provide more data/surprise and make an exception?
Our China U.S. soybean purchase tracker is now at 26.6% or a total of 3.2 mmt but for traders it’s taking too long to unfold.
The final Stats Canada production report was bearish canola and wheat projection a record crop in both (it adds to the global glut of supplies) and bullish local corn and soybean prices in Ontario/Quebec thanks to a drought. It will not help the fund flow short-term, the USDA may need to offset it?
A U.S. Fed interest rate cut of another 25-basis point next Wednesday (probability 87.1%) could help fund flow and sentiment in stock and ag commodities into year end.
More inflows into Bitcoin this past week saw prices rebound back above 90,000 with support at 82,000 and resistance at 96,000.
A V-shaped bottom in cattle suggest the lows are in after Mexico reported another new world screwworm case. Lower weights, seasonal demand and higher U.S. beef select/choice values with a continued closure of the Mexican border to cattle will result in a resumption of higher cattle futures into yearend.
Australia is expected to produce its 3rd largest wheat crop ever at 36 mmt adding to the global glut of supplies.
Reports of ASF in hogs in Spain the largest pork exporter in Europe could see the U.S. win more pork export business long-term.
If the rains verify into next week of 3-5 inches for Brazil it would go a long way to fixing the dry regions from the last 2-months, but the European weather model has been wrong for the past 2-months!
Natural gas futures are surging to the 3rd price count as frigid hold temps set in.
CDN $ is also surging to end the week on a very resilient economy and better employment numbers suggesting no interest rate cuts next week.
Finally, the CFTC report showed funds were net buyers of soybeans but sellers of corn, canola and wheat. In real time the funds have gone back to selling as they take some profits.