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War in Ukraine creating significant changes in global trade flows

The war in Ukraine is creating significant changes in global trade flows.

That statement from David Przednowek, assistant vice president of grain for CN Rail.

"From a Canadian demand perspective, it started in the last week of February, you've got forward sales put on. We haven't seen a spike in demand as a consequence of that. Where you're seeing it more is trade flow out of the U.S., where a lot of Ukraine corn can't get out. That has to get covered by other origins. The U.S. is one of those origins that can cover, from that perspective we're seeing those changes occur."

He notes it will be interesting to see how things play out as we get into the back end of 2022 and beyond to see how prolonged those changes in trade flow are and what the implications are for the movement of grain and other commodities, adding it's still early to tell.

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USDA took Trumps comments that China would buy more U.S. soybeans seriously and headline news that the U.S./China trade truce would be extended when Trump/Xi meet in the first week of April was a BIG WIN for soybeans this week! 2026 “Mini” U.S. ethanol boom thanks to 45Z + China’s ban of phosphates from Feb. – August of 2026 will not help lower fertilizer prices anytime soon! 30 mmt of Chinese corn harvest is of poor quality and maybe a technical breakout in wheat futures.

*Apologies! Where we talk about the latest CFTC update as of 10th Feb 2026, managed money funds covered their net short position in canola to the tune of +42,746 week-on-week to flip to net long 145 contracts and not (as we mistakenly said) +90,009 wk/wk to 47,408.